Spread: Knicks (-3.5)

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Knicks (22%) · Knicks at 63¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 8

Knicks63¢Cavaliers37¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Knicks

Consensus Traders

Knicks 22%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

-$21.56

Smart Money Entry

57.9¢ → 63¢

+9% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidKnicks at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

2 of 9 top traders (22%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Knicks63%

Cavaliers37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Knicks2 traders

Total Value$507.2

Total Shares821

Combined PnL+$31.61

Cavaliers7 traders

Total Value$449.03

Total Shares1,126

Combined PnL-$53.17

Knicks — 22%Cavaliers — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Knicksavg 55.4¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$36.4	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 55.4¢	$681.44	$774.71	+$93.27
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 43¢	$407.62	$350.74	-$56.88
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Cavaliersavg 50.8¢	$864.49	$717.66	-$146.83	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 50.8¢	$685.28	$499.38	-$185.9
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 51.7¢	$179.21	$218.28	+$39.07
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Cavaliersavg 55.1¢	$908.48	$710.49	-$197.99	56% 8738-6795 (15533)
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 55.1¢	$676.51	$454.1	-$222.41
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 57¢	$231.98	$256.4	+$24.42
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Cavaliersavg 49.4¢	$587.13	$531.01	-$56.11	51% 5014-4884 (9898)
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 55.9¢	$242.12	$272.76	+$30.64
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 49.4¢	$345.01	$258.25	-$86.76
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Cavaliersavg 46.3¢	$519.31	$444.07	-$75.24	52% 5134-4713 (9847)
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 46.3¢	$441.01	$352.72	-$88.29
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 54¢	$78.3	$91.35	+$13.05
GL glennyorkshire	Knicksavg 56¢	$284.74	$310.17	+$25.42	45% 205-249 (454)
VeryLucky888CTR	Cavaliersavg 44¢	$238.64	$211.52	-$27.12	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
RN1	Knicksavg 61¢	$190.85	$197.03	+$6.19	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 37¢	$90.28	$90.28	+$0	50% 4741-4676 (9417)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 47.5¢	$74.56	$56.26	-$10.14	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 50¢	$76	$52.73	-$18.91	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 44¢	$15.71	$21.96	+$6.25	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 45¢	$17.19	$14.13	-$3.06	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.15	-$0.2	52% 9018-8169 (17187)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Knicks

Invested

$1,089.06

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$36.4

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

Both legs:

Knicks$681.4455.4¢+$93.27

Cavaliers$407.6243¢-$56.88

FlaznorpARB<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$864.49

Value

$717.66

PnL

-$146.83

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

Both legs:

Cavaliers$685.2850.8¢-$185.9

Knicks$179.2151.7¢+$39.07

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$908.48

Value

$710.49

PnL

-$197.99

Record

56%

8738-6795 (15533)

Both legs:

Cavaliers$676.5155.1¢-$222.41

Knicks$231.9857¢+$24.42

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$587.13

Value

$531.01

PnL

-$56.11

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

Both legs:

Knicks$242.1255.9¢+$30.64

Cavaliers$345.0149.4¢-$86.76

takeormakeARB<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$519.31

Value

$444.07

PnL

-$75.24

Record

52%

5134-4713 (9847)

Both legs:

Cavaliers$441.0146.3¢-$88.29

Knicks$78.354¢+$13.05

glennyorkshire

Knicks

Invested

$284.74

Value

$310.17

PnL

+$25.42

Record

45%

205-249 (454)

VeryLucky888CTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$238.64

Value

$211.52

PnL

-$27.12

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

RN1

Knicks

Invested

$190.85

Value

$197.03

PnL

+$6.19

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$90.28

Value

$90.28

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

4741-4676 (9417)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$74.56

Value

$56.26

PnL

-$10.14

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$76

Value

$52.73

PnL

-$18.91

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

NM-PCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$15.71

Value

$21.96

PnL

+$6.25

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$17.19

Value

$14.13

PnL

-$3.06

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.15

PnL

-$0.2

Record

52%

9018-8169 (17187)

Research grade

AvoidKnicks at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

2 of 9 top traders (22%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Knicks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.2%

63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$53.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

153.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.