Pelicans vs. Clippers: O/U 231.5

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 63¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 9

Over37¢Under63¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 57%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

-$15.42

Smart Money Entry

67.1¢ → 63¢

-6% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over37%

Under63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,780

Combined PnL-$9.05

Over3 traders

Total Value$185.02

Total Shares499

Combined PnL-$6.37

Under — 57%Over — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 73¢	$730	$705	-$25	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 58.9¢	$416.24	$434.83	+$18.59	54% 19992-16872 (36864)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 27¢	$364.76	$417.48	+$52.72	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
└ Over leg	Overavg 27¢	$270	$325	+$55
└ Under leg	Underavg 69.2¢	$94.76	$92.48	-$2.28
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 68¢	$201.5	$191.62	-$9.88	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
└ Under leg	Underavg 68¢	$156.5	$149.62	-$6.88
└ Over leg	Overavg 37.5¢	$45	$42	-$3
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 41¢	$152.03	$142.76	-$9.27	50% 48622-48197 (96819)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 30¢	$35.4	$38.35	+$2.95	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 67.7¢	$48.15	$38.15	-$3.4	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
nigiri99<$100	Underavg 57¢	$9.69	$10.46	+$0.77	45% 14434-17741 (32175)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Overavg 39¢	$3.96	$3.91	-$0.05	53% 14337-12646 (26983)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$730

Value

$705

PnL

-$25

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$416.24

Value

$434.83

PnL

+$18.59

Record

54%

19992-16872 (36864)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$364.76

Value

$417.48

PnL

+$52.72

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

Both legs:

Over$27027¢+$55

Under$94.7669.2¢-$2.28

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$201.5

Value

$191.62

PnL

-$9.88

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

Both legs:

Invested

$152.03

Value

$142.76

PnL

-$9.27

Record

50%

48622-48197 (96819)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$35.4

Value

$38.35

PnL

+$2.95

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$48.15

Value

$38.15

PnL

-$3.4

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

nigiri99<$100

Under

Invested

$9.69

Value

$10.46

PnL

+$0.77

Record

45%

14434-17741 (32175)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.96

Value

$3.91

PnL

-$0.05

Record

53%

14337-12646 (26983)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.2%

63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$53.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

153.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.