Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (53%). 9 of 21 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Pelicans vs. Clippers: O/U 223.5

9 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 48¢ · $25K held · ends Nov 9

Over53¢Under47¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 43%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$24.5K

Combined PnL

$11.69

Smart Money Entry

52.7¢ → 47.5¢

-10% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 21 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Over 53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$11.2K

Total Shares23,020

Combined PnL-$891.52

Over12 traders

Total Value$11.5K

Total Shares21,850

Combined PnL+$903.2

Under — 43%Over — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA marvelousmarvinCTR	Underavg 54.7¢	$9.7K	$8.8K	-$922.21	62% 55-34 (89)
alpheclabs2	Overavg 46¢	$3.5K	$3.9K	+$450	47% 1640-1847 (3487)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Overavg 47¢	$1.8K	$2.1K	+$214.79	50% 5216-5115 (10331)
RN1	Overavg 46.2¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$207.54	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Underavg 47.8¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$47.59	46% 2028-2381 (4409)
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.8¢	$902.34	$907.02	+$4.68
└ Over leg	Overavg 47¢	$403.32	$446.23	+$42.91
65 6512395314597884	Overavg 53.1¢	$947.33	$927.67	-$19.66	51% 5685-5538 (11223)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 50.5¢	$833.55	$847.75	+$14.21	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
AN Anon455	Overavg 50.8¢	$816.34	$835.85	+$19.51	54% 4009-3371 (7380)
BI biying88888CTR	Underavg 49.8¢	$797.67	$769.11	-$28.56	47% 242-270 (512)
TA takeormake	Overavg 50¢	$639.41	$639.41	+$0	52% 5562-5184 (10746)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 41.2¢	$462.11	$470.52	+$8.41	54% 19992-16872 (36864)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 45.6¢	$432.35	$450.66	+$18.32	49% 2223-2352 (4575)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 53.7¢	$398.07	$401.33	+$3.26	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
└ Over leg	Overavg 53.7¢	$267.94	$259.56	-$8.37
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.1¢	$130.13	$141.76	+$11.63
38 38791873984189	Overavg 49.9¢	$293.66	$305.76	+$12.1	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 45.4¢	$267.24	$294.57	+$27.33	47% 2157-2403 (4560)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 47.2¢	$222.67	$226.55	+$3.88	47% 2189-2445 (4634)
PA Pan9X	Overavg 50.2¢	$158.19	$163.94	+$5.75	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 42¢	$134.67	$134.67	+$0	50% 48622-48197 (96819)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$66.81	$67.52	+$0.71	47% 2148-2414 (4562)
CI cigarettes<$100	Overavg 47.5¢	$47.5	$47.5	+$0	50% 65492-65807 (131299)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 60¢	$19.56	$18.75	-$0.81	50% 27970-27422 (55392)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 59¢	$12.84	$12.61	-$0.23	57% 24691-18283 (42974)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Underavg 45.2¢	$5.79	$6.4	+$0.61	35% 1117-2083 (3200)

marvelousmarvinCTR

Under

Invested

$9,745.55

Value

$8.8K

PnL

-$922.21

Record

62%

55-34 (89)

alpheclabs2

Over

Invested

$3,450

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$450

Record

47%

1640-1847 (3487)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Over

Invested

$1,837.43

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$214.79

Record

50%

5216-5115 (10331)

RN1

Over

Invested

$1,557.01

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$207.54

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,305.66

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$47.59

Record

46%

2028-2381 (4409)

Both legs:

Under$902.3447.8¢+$4.68

Over$403.3247¢+$42.91

6512395314597884

Over

Invested

$947.33

Value

$927.67

PnL

-$19.66

Record

51%

5685-5538 (11223)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$833.55

Value

$847.75

PnL

+$14.21

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$816.34

Value

$835.85

PnL

+$19.51

Record

54%

4009-3371 (7380)

biying88888CTR

Under

Invested

$797.67

Value

$769.11

PnL

-$28.56

Record

47%

242-270 (512)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$639.41

Value

$639.41

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

5562-5184 (10746)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$462.11

Value

$470.52

PnL

+$8.41

Record

54%

19992-16872 (36864)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$432.35

Value

$450.66

PnL

+$18.32

Record

49%

2223-2352 (4575)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$398.07

Value

$401.33

PnL

+$3.26

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

Both legs:

Over$267.9453.7¢-$8.37

Under$130.1344.1¢+$11.63

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$293.66

Value

$305.76

PnL

+$12.1

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$267.24

Value

$294.57

PnL

+$27.33

Record

47%

2157-2403 (4560)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$222.67

Value

$226.55

PnL

+$3.88

Record

47%

2189-2445 (4634)

Pan9X

Over

Invested

$158.19

Value

$163.94

PnL

+$5.75

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$134.67

Value

$134.67

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

48622-48197 (96819)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$66.81

Value

$67.52

PnL

+$0.71

Record

47%

2148-2414 (4562)

cigarettes<$100

Over

Invested

$47.5

Value

$47.5

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

65492-65807 (131299)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$19.56

Value

$18.75

PnL

-$0.81

Record

50%

27970-27422 (55392)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$12.84

Value

$12.61

PnL

-$0.23

Record

57%

24691-18283 (42974)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.79

Value

$6.4

PnL

+$0.61

Record

35%

1117-2083 (3200)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 21 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Over 53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.