Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (56%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Pelicans vs. Clippers: O/U 229.5
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 44¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 9
⚠️
Avoid
Over
9
Over 67%
$8.3K
$244.4
44.2¢ → 43.5¢
-2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 44%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 44.4¢ | $3.4K | $3.3K | -$67.87 | 54% 18557-15589 (34146) |
HI hi774cCTR | Overavg 44¢ | $2.3K | $2.5K | +$180.59 | 46% 5332-6170 (11502) |
FO forecastication4CTR | Overavg 44¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$109.05 | 50% 1423-1429 (2852) |
 nigiri99 | Underavg 55.1¢ | $874.9 | $897.75 | +$22.85 | 46% 8770-10464 (19234) |
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100 | Overavg 42.7¢ | $62.77 | $63.97 | +$1.21 | 53% 12855-11522 (24377) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 57¢ | $35.56 | $35.24 | -$0.31 | 50% 26504-26107 (52611) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $32.9 | $21.2 | -$1.22 | 58% 23579-16943 (40522) |
KA KasonWong<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $20.8 | $21 | +$0.2 | 52% 26-24 (50) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $9.6 | $9.5 | -$0.1 | 56% 8260-6557 (14817) |
Invested
$3,374.14
Value
$3.3K
PnL
-$67.87
Record
54%
18557-15589 (34146)
Invested
$2,304.06
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$180.59
Record
46%
5332-6170 (11502)
Invested
$1,371.04
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$109.05
Record
50%
1423-1429 (2852)
nigiri99Invested
$874.9
Value
$897.75
PnL
+$22.85
Record
46%
8770-10464 (19234)
Invested
$62.77
Value
$63.97
PnL
+$1.21
Record
53%
12855-11522 (24377)
Invested
$35.56
Value
$35.24
PnL
-$0.31
Record
50%
26504-26107 (52611)
Invested
$32.9
Value
$21.2
PnL
-$1.22
Record
58%
23579-16943 (40522)
Invested
$20.8
Value
$21
PnL
+$0.2
Record
52%
26-24 (50)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$9.6
Value
$9.5
PnL
-$0.1
Record
56%
8260-6557 (14817)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.