Pelicans vs. Warriors: O/U 234.5

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 85¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 10

Over15¢Under85¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 43%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$120.94

Smart Money Entry

64.2¢ → 85¢

+32% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 85%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over15%

Under85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$541.63

Total Shares734

Combined PnL+$70.3

Over4 traders

Total Value$239.15

Total Shares1,266

Combined PnL-$191.24

Under — 43%Over — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpOver 50% · 4

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Underavg 67.7¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$167.25	56% 403-323 (726)
└ Under leg	Underavg 67.7¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$118.52
└ Over leg	Overavg 21.7¢	$318.79	$367.52	+$48.73
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 64.3¢	$452.89	$520.93	+$68.05	50% 1275-1295 (2570)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 35¢	$350	$170	-$180	29% 115-287 (402)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 71¢	$62.14	$65.76	+$3.62	58% 3628-2593 (6221)
└ Under leg	Underavg 71¢	$38.14	$39.76	+$1.62
└ Over leg	Overavg 24¢	$24	$26	+$2
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Overavg 29¢	$69.31	$62.14	-$7.17	58% 3041-2166 (5207)
SU SunlineTicker<$100	Underavg 57.8¢	$11.55	$13.8	+$2.25	70% 1546-674 (2220)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100	Underavg 69¢	$6.9	$6.9	+$0	54% 179-150 (329)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 40.9¢	$10.26	$6.53	-$3.73	51% 197-186 (383)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$0.82	$0.48	-$0.33	57% 3010-2261 (5271)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,413.24

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$167.25

Record

56%

403-323 (726)

Both legs:

Under$1,094.4467.7¢+$118.52

Over$318.7921.7¢+$48.73

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$452.89

Value

$520.93

PnL

+$68.05

Record

50%

1275-1295 (2570)

justaluckydudeCTR

Over

Invested

$350

Value

$170

PnL

-$180

Record

29%

115-287 (402)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$62.14

Value

$65.76

PnL

+$3.62

Record

58%

3628-2593 (6221)

Both legs:

Invested

$69.31

Value

$62.14

PnL

-$7.17

Record

58%

3041-2166 (5207)

SunlineTicker<$100

Under

Invested

$11.55

Value

$13.8

PnL

+$2.25

Record

70%

1546-674 (2220)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100

Under

Invested

$6.9

Value

$6.9

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

179-150 (329)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.26

Value

$6.53

PnL

-$3.73

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.82

Value

$0.48

PnL

-$0.33

Record

57%

3010-2261 (5271)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 85%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpOver 50% · 4

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.6%

85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.