Pelicans vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5

7 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Under (44%) · Under at 56¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 10

Over44¢Under56¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 44%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.0K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

50.4¢ → 56.5¢

+12% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 16 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over44%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$11.2K

Total Shares20,023

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Over9 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares6,007

Combined PnL-$10.88

Under — 44%Over — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-32 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (9 on Under) disagree here.

ctrOver 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 49.3¢	$5.2K	$5.8K	+$648.38	30% 29-67 (96)
nigiri99	Underavg 52.9¢	$3.9K	$4.2K	+$263.64	43% 26-35 (61)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Overavg 48¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$0	3% 4-155 (159)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Overavg 48¢	$1,000	$989.58	-$10.42	1% 2-261 (263)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 47¢	$721.22	$867	+$145.78	25% 84-248 (332)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Overavg 48¢	$500.5	$525	-$4.37	5% 11-190 (201)
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.3¢	$248.5	$273	-$4.37
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$252	$252	+$0
NM NM-PARB<$100	Underavg 47.1¢	$356.14	$375.61	-$2.49	6% 11-164 (175)
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.1¢	$188.14	$207.61	-$2.49
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$168	$168	+$0
LI Limousin	Underavg 47¢	$220.8	$247.98	+$40.98	24% 87-279 (366)
RN1CTR	Overavg 48¢	$143.12	$139.39	-$3.73	54% 230-199 (429)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 47¢	$117.5	$118.75	+$1.25	52% 59-54 (113)
SU SunlineTicker<$100	Underavg 50¢	$72	$81.36	+$9.36	4% 5-123 (128)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$55.88	$56.51	+$0.63	49% 377-392 (769)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$41.86	$42.33	+$0.48	48% 35-38 (73)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 47.6¢	$39.4	$38.38	-$1.01	53% 85-74 (159)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$29.51	$20.89	+$1.3	48% 171-185 (356)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Underavg 54¢	$13.79	$13.92	+$0.13	5% 21-412 (433)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 44.7¢	$13.4	$13.35	-$0.05	69% 27-12 (39)
nehcnehcCTR<$100	Overavg 52¢	$5.2	$4.85	-$0.35	8% 2-23 (25)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$5,164.31

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$648.38

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$3,903.23

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$263.64

Record

43%

26-35 (61)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Over

Invested

$1,499.6

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$0

Record

4-155 (159)

pltrkr111CTR

Over

Invested

$1,000

Value

$989.58

PnL

-$10.42

Record

2-261 (263)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$721.22

Value

$867

PnL

+$145.78

Record

25%

84-248 (332)

GC-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$500.5

Value

$525

PnL

-$4.37

Record

11-190 (201)

Both legs:

Under$248.547.3¢-$4.37

Over$25248¢+$0

NM-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$356.14

Value

$375.61

PnL

-$2.49

Record

11-164 (175)

Both legs:

Under$188.1447.1¢-$2.49

Over$16848¢+$0

Limousin

Under

Invested

$220.8

Value

$247.98

PnL

+$40.98

Record

24%

87-279 (366)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$143.12

Value

$139.39

PnL

-$3.73

Record

54%

230-199 (429)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$117.5

Value

$118.75

PnL

+$1.25

Record

52%

59-54 (113)

SunlineTicker<$100

Under

Invested

$72

Value

$81.36

PnL

+$9.36

Record

5-123 (128)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$55.88

Value

$56.51

PnL

+$0.63

Record

49%

377-392 (769)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$41.86

Value

$42.33

PnL

+$0.48

Record

48%

35-38 (73)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$39.4

Value

$38.38

PnL

-$1.01

Record

53%

85-74 (159)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$29.51

Value

$20.89

PnL

+$1.3

Record

48%

171-185 (356)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Under

Invested

$13.79

Value

$13.92

PnL

+$0.13

Record

21-412 (433)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.4

Value

$13.35

PnL

-$0.05

Record

69%

27-12 (39)

nehcnehcCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.2

Value

$4.85

PnL

-$0.35

Record

2-23 (25)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 16 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-32 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (9 on Under) disagree here.

ctrOver 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.