Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (68%). 8 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Pelicans vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 32¢ · $18K held · ended Nov 10

Over68¢Under32¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 57%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.9K

Combined PnL

$801.46

Smart Money Entry

52.9¢ → 32¢

-40% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 32%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 14 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Over 68%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over68%

Under32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$7.9K

Total Shares13,864

Combined PnL+$373.51

Over6 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,036

Combined PnL+$427.95

Under — 57%Over — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (9 on Over) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 47.6¢	$6.0K	$5.6K	-$332.7	50% 1275-1295 (2570)
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.6¢	$4.2K	$3.8K	-$405.38
└ Under leg	Underavg 54.8¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$72.68
IA ianf2026CTR	Underavg 52¢	$4.9K	$5.3K	+$467.37	4% 3-78 (81)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 58.4¢	$1.7K	$1.3K	-$397.61	58% 3628-2593 (6221)
└ Under leg	Underavg 58.4¢	$1.3K	$697.7	-$576.06
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.9¢	$432.04	$612.88	+$178.46
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 51.1¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$28.73	54% 1541-1296 (2837)
JU justaluckydude	Overavg 49.2¢	$914.53	$1.1K	+$210.45	29% 115-287 (402)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 53.9¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$151.95	48% 603-645 (1248)
└ Under leg	Underavg 53.9¢	$885.58	$649.32	-$234.94
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.8¢	$283.65	$366.64	+$82.99
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Underavg 61¢	$632.68	$586.64	-$34.24	54% 179-150 (329)
LI LightParadox	Overavg 42.7¢	$278.67	$450.32	+$171.65	23% 176-590 (766)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Underavg 58¢	$296.71	$291.84	-$4.87	63% 2176-1291 (3467)
PA Pan9XCTR	Underavg 54.4¢	$449.36	$285.15	-$93.69	47% 329-371 (700)
LR lryyyARB<$100	Underavg 50.5¢	$174.24	$191.95	+$17.71	50% 109-109 (218)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.5¢	$144.32	$150.15	+$5.83
└ Over leg	Overavg 34¢	$29.92	$41.8	+$11.88
MA MadridTime	Overavg 47.8¢	$116.34	$167.93	+$51.59	23% 176-586 (762)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 52¢	$123.81	$135.71	+$11.9	47% 171-192 (363)
TA takeormake	Overavg 49.1¢	$132.77	$127.16	-$5.61	58% 3041-2166 (5207)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Underavg 58¢	$98.6	$96.9	-$1.7	62% 127-77 (204)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Overavg 61¢	$3.05	$3.1	+$0.05	20% 67-271 (338)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 57¢	$2.87	$2.87	-$0	51% 197-186 (383)
VE Venusian<$100	Overavg 47¢	$2.15	$1.97	-$0.18	24% 184-596 (780)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$5,957.34

Value

$5.6K

PnL

-$332.7

Record

50%

1275-1295 (2570)

Both legs:

Over$4,167.6647.6¢-$405.38

Under$1,789.6854.8¢+$72.68

ianf2026CTR

Under

Invested

$4,860.69

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$467.37

Record

3-78 (81)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,744.63

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$397.61

Record

58%

3628-2593 (6221)

Both legs:

Under$1,273.7658.4¢-$576.06

Over$432.0447.9¢+$178.46

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$1,105.47

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$28.73

Record

54%

1541-1296 (2837)

justaluckydude

Over

Invested

$914.53

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$210.45

Record

29%

115-287 (402)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,232.08

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$151.95

Record

48%

603-645 (1248)

Both legs:

Under$885.5853.9¢-$234.94

Over$283.6546.8¢+$82.99

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Under

Invested

$632.68

Value

$586.64

PnL

-$34.24

Record

54%

179-150 (329)

LightParadox

Over

Invested

$278.67

Value

$450.32

PnL

+$171.65

Record

23%

176-590 (766)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Under

Invested

$296.71

Value

$291.84

PnL

-$4.87

Record

63%

2176-1291 (3467)

Pan9XCTR

Under

Invested

$449.36

Value

$285.15

PnL

-$93.69

Record

47%

329-371 (700)

lryyyARB<$100

Under

Invested

$174.24

Value

$191.95

PnL

+$17.71

Record

50%

109-109 (218)

Both legs:

Under$144.3250.5¢+$5.83

Over$29.9234¢+$11.88

MadridTime

Over

Invested

$116.34

Value

$167.93

PnL

+$51.59

Record

23%

176-586 (762)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$123.81

Value

$135.71

PnL

+$11.9

Record

47%

171-192 (363)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$132.77

Value

$127.16

PnL

-$5.61

Record

58%

3041-2166 (5207)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$98.6

Value

$96.9

PnL

-$1.7

Record

62%

127-77 (204)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Over

Invested

$3.05

Value

$3.1

PnL

+$0.05

Record

20%

67-271 (338)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.87

Value

$2.87

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

Venusian<$100

Over

Invested

$2.15

Value

$1.97

PnL

-$0.18

Record

24%

184-596 (780)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 32%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 14 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Over 68%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (9 on Over) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.1%

32.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$193.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

293.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.