Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Pelicans vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (86%) · Under at 50¢ · $681 held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 86%
1 arb excluded
$680.56
$37.06
45.5¢ → 49.5¢
+9% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99CTR | Underavg 46¢ | $230 | $247.5 | +$17.5 | 43% 28-37 (65) |
JO JoeyAroyyOOCTR | Underavg 45.3¢ | $184.3 | $201.47 | +$17.18 | 0% 0-42 (42) |
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Overavg 54¢ | $182.89 | $182.9 | +$0.02 | 30% 29-67 (96) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 54¢ | $105.3 | $98.48 | -$6.83 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 45.5¢ | $77.59 | $84.43 | +$6.84 | |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $24.85 | $24.37 | -$0.49 | 53% 86-75 (161) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Underavg 42¢ | $8.4 | $9.9 | +$1.5 | 24% 90-282 (372) |
BI biying88888CTR<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $7.36 | $7.92 | +$0.56 | 23% 30-102 (132) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 39¢ | $3.2 | $4.02 | +$0.53 | 52% 242-224 (466) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $2.2 | $2.48 | +$0.27 | 26% 87-252 (339) |
nigiri99CTRInvested
$230
Value
$247.5
PnL
+$17.5
Record
43%
28-37 (65)
Invested
$184.3
Value
$201.47
PnL
+$17.18
Record
0%
0-42 (42)
Invested
$182.89
Value
$182.9
PnL
+$0.02
Record
30%
29-67 (96)
Both legs:
Invested
$24.85
Value
$24.37
PnL
-$0.49
Record
53%
86-75 (161)
Invested
$8.4
Value
$9.9
PnL
+$1.5
Record
24%
90-282 (372)
Invested
$7.36
Value
$7.92
PnL
+$0.56
Record
23%
30-102 (132)
Invested
$3.2
Value
$4.02
PnL
+$0.53
Record
52%
242-224 (466)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$2.48
PnL
+$0.27
Record
26%
87-252 (339)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.