Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (89%). 7 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Pelicans vs. Warriors: O/U 224.5

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (58%) · Under at 11¢ · $23K held · ended Nov 10

Over89¢Under11¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 58%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.8K

Combined PnL

$-2.7K

Smart Money Entry

51.5¢ → 11¢

-79% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Over 89%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over89%

Under11%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$13.2K

Total Shares20,708

Combined PnL+$2.3K

Under7 traders

Total Value$8.1K

Total Shares25,200

Combined PnL$-4.9K

Over — 42%Under — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 67% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Under 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 48¢	$9.5K	$11.3K	+$1.8K	54% 1541-1296 (2837)
MA marvelousmarvinCTR	Underavg 52¢	$9.5K	$5.9K	$-3.7K	21% 9-34 (43)
BI biying88888CTR	Underavg 51.8¢	$2.5K	$1.5K	-$942.39	26% 52-151 (203)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 54.6¢	$875.3	$1.3K	+$392.31	56% 403-323 (726)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 47.2¢	$1.2K	$929.22	-$235.9	50% 1275-1295 (2570)
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.2¢	$918.87	$622.31	-$296.56
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.3¢	$246.24	$306.9	+$60.66
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 46¢	$591.91	$522.37	-$69.54	58% 3628-2593 (6221)
└ Over leg	Overavg 52¢	$251.67	$285.55	+$33.88
└ Under leg	Underavg 46¢	$340.24	$236.83	-$103.42
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Overavg 50.1¢	$397.15	$426.42	+$29.27	54% 179-150 (329)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 47¢	$406.63	$276.57	-$130.06	23% 176-586 (762)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 44.8¢	$263.36	$188.28	-$75.08	24% 184-596 (780)
betdge	Overavg 61¢	$130.11	$145.04	+$14.93	41% 12-17 (29)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Overavg 52¢	$108.3	$107.7	-$0.6	27% 133-354 (487)
└ Over leg	Overavg 52¢	$74.85	$84.93	+$10.08
└ Under leg	Underavg 47¢	$33.45	$22.77	-$10.68
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 47.4¢	$153.58	$103.59	-$49.99	23% 174-599 (773)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 48¢	$104.07	$69.41	-$34.66	23% 176-590 (766)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$59.34	$41.28	-$18.06	29% 115-287 (402)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 62¢	$5.23	$4.72	-$0.52	51% 197-186 (383)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$9,495.42

Value

$11.3K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

54%

1541-1296 (2837)

marvelousmarvinCTR

Under

Invested

$9,523.79

Value

$5.9K

PnL

$-3.7K

Record

21%

9-34 (43)

biying88888CTR

Under

Invested

$2,466.6

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$942.39

Record

26%

52-151 (203)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$875.3

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$392.31

Record

56%

403-323 (726)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,165.12

Value

$929.22

PnL

-$235.9

Record

50%

1275-1295 (2570)

Both legs:

Under$918.8747.2¢-$296.56

Over$246.2447.3¢+$60.66

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$591.91

Value

$522.37

PnL

-$69.54

Record

58%

3628-2593 (6221)

Both legs:

Over$251.6752¢+$33.88

Under$340.2446¢-$103.42

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Over

Invested

$397.15

Value

$426.42

PnL

+$29.27

Record

54%

179-150 (329)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$406.63

Value

$276.57

PnL

-$130.06

Record

23%

176-586 (762)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$263.36

Value

$188.28

PnL

-$75.08

Record

24%

184-596 (780)

betdge

Over

Invested

$130.11

Value

$145.04

PnL

+$14.93

Record

41%

12-17 (29)

sentrioARB<$100

Over

Invested

$108.3

Value

$107.7

PnL

-$0.6

Record

27%

133-354 (487)

Both legs:

Over$74.8552¢+$10.08

Under$33.4547¢-$10.68

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$153.58

Value

$103.59

PnL

-$49.99

Record

23%

174-599 (773)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$104.07

Value

$69.41

PnL

-$34.66

Record

23%

176-590 (766)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$59.34

Value

$41.28

PnL

-$18.06

Record

29%

115-287 (402)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$5.23

Value

$4.72

PnL

-$0.52

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Over 89%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 67% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Under 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance12.5%

11.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$698.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

798.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.