Pelicans vs. Warriors: O/U 222.5

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (29%) · Over at 94¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 10

Over94¢Under6¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 29%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$61.18

Smart Money Entry

63.8¢ → 93.5¢

+47% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over94%

Under7%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$467.71

Total Shares602

Combined PnL+$62.07

Under5 traders

Total Value$431.35

Total Shares1,135

Combined PnL-$0.89

Over — 29%Under — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (8 on Under) disagree here.

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Overavg 54.2¢	$353.08	$473.44	+$120.35	56% 403-323 (726)
└ Over leg	Overavg 54.2¢	$253.08	$375.94	+$122.85
└ Under leg	Underavg 20¢	$100	$97.5	-$2.5
RN1	Overavg 62¢	$339.05	$401.13	+$62.07	58% 3628-2593 (6221)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Underavg 32¢	$129.52	$153.8	+$24.28	54% 179-150 (329)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 47¢	$134.42	$108.68	-$25.74	23% 176-586 (762)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 37.9¢	$99.21	$99.56	+$0.35	24% 184-596 (780)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 38¢	$67.21	$67.21	+$0	23% 176-590 (766)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Overavg 74¢	$66.58	$66.58	+$0	50% 1275-1295 (2570)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 34.1¢	$1.88	$2.1	+$0.22	23% 174-599 (773)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$353.08

Value

$473.44

PnL

+$120.35

Record

56%

403-323 (726)

Both legs:

Over$253.0854.2¢+$122.85

Under$10020¢-$2.5

RN1

Over

Invested

$339.05

Value

$401.13

PnL

+$62.07

Record

58%

3628-2593 (6221)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Under

Invested

$129.52

Value

$153.8

PnL

+$24.28

Record

54%

179-150 (329)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$134.42

Value

$108.68

PnL

-$25.74

Record

23%

176-586 (762)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$99.21

Value

$99.56

PnL

+$0.35

Record

24%

184-596 (780)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$67.21

Value

$67.21

PnL

+$0

Record

23%

176-590 (766)

Flaznorp<$100

Over

Invested

$66.58

Value

$66.58

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1275-1295 (2570)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.88

Value

$2.1

PnL

+$0.22

Record

23%

174-599 (773)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (8 on Under) disagree here.

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.