Pelicans vs. Warriors: O/U 220.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (56%) · Over at 96¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 10

Over96¢Under4¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 56%

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

-$236.88

Smart Money Entry

46.7¢ → 96¢

+106% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over96%

Under4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares4,475

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Under4 traders

Total Value$795.61

Total Shares3,690

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Over — 56%Under — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 45¢	$1.1K	$1.8K	+$654.15	54% 1541-1296 (2837)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 46.4¢	$972.49	$1.3K	+$375	56% 403-323 (726)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Underavg 55¢	$2.0K	$758.28	$-1.2K	54% 179-150 (329)
RN1	Overavg 65¢	$121.77	$133.01	+$11.24	58% 3628-2593 (6221)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Overavg 69.5¢	$37.58	$38.41	+$0.83	50% 1275-1295 (2570)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 35¢	$67.22	$34.6	-$32.62	24% 184-596 (780)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Overavg 77¢	$2.82	$2.91	+$0.09	20% 67-271 (338)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 28.5¢	$2.85	$1.8	-$1.05	23% 176-590 (766)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 35¢	$1.8	$0.93	-$0.87	23% 174-599 (773)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$1,132.66

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$654.15

Record

54%

1541-1296 (2837)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$972.49

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$375

Record

56%

403-323 (726)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Under

Invested

$2,009.64

Value

$758.28

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

54%

179-150 (329)

RN1

Over

Invested

$121.77

Value

$133.01

PnL

+$11.24

Record

58%

3628-2593 (6221)

Flaznorp<$100

Over

Invested

$37.58

Value

$38.41

PnL

+$0.83

Record

50%

1275-1295 (2570)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$67.22

Value

$34.6

PnL

-$32.62

Record

24%

184-596 (780)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Over

Invested

$2.82

Value

$2.91

PnL

+$0.09

Record

20%

67-271 (338)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.85

Value

$1.8

PnL

-$1.05

Record

23%

176-590 (766)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.8

Value

$0.93

PnL

-$0.87

Record

23%

174-599 (773)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.