Pelicans vs. Warriors: O/U 216.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 93¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 50%
$2.4K
-$157.37
63.5¢ → 92.5¢
+46% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 93%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-10 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 69¢ | $992.3 | $1.2K | +$200.28 | 50% 1275-1295 (2570) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Overavg 56.1¢ | $767 | $1.0K | +$233.91 | 56% 403-323 (726) |
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR | Underavg 44¢ | $740.65 | $134.66 | -$605.98 | 54% 179-150 (329) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Overavg 59¢ | $40.44 | $57.58 | +$17.14 | 34% 147-291 (438) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 21¢ | $3.15 | $1.2 | -$1.95 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Underavg 23¢ | $1.15 | $0.4 | -$0.75 | 23% 174-599 (773) |
Invested
$992.3
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$200.28
Record
50%
1275-1295 (2570)
Invested
$767
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$233.91
Record
56%
403-323 (726)
Invested
$740.65
Value
$134.66
PnL
-$605.98
Record
54%
179-150 (329)
Invested
$40.44
Value
$57.58
PnL
+$17.14
Record
34%
147-291 (438)
Invested
$3.15
Value
$1.2
PnL
-$1.95
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
Invested
$1.15
Value
$0.4
PnL
-$0.75
Record
23%
174-599 (773)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.