Pelicans vs. Warriors: O/U 212.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 95¢ · $474 held · ended Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 60%
$474.03
$55.55
85¢ → 95¢
+12% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 95%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 84.1¢ | $253.96 | $260.83 | +$6.87 | 50% 1275-1295 (2570) |
DA darkumbreon88 | Overavg 87¢ | $99.34 | $105.05 | +$5.71 | 4% 21-541 (562) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100 | Underavg 7.9¢ | $33.15 | $89.8 | +$56.65 | 56% 403-323 (726) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Underavg 17¢ | $25.47 | $11.99 | -$13.48 | 24% 184-596 (780) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 87¢ | $6.54 | $6.35 | -$0.19 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
Invested
$253.96
Value
$260.83
PnL
+$6.87
Record
50%
1275-1295 (2570)
Invested
$99.34
Value
$105.05
PnL
+$5.71
Record
4%
21-541 (562)
Invested
$33.15
Value
$89.8
PnL
+$56.65
Record
56%
403-323 (726)
Invested
$25.47
Value
$11.99
PnL
-$13.48
Record
24%
184-596 (780)
Invested
$6.54
Value
$6.35
PnL
-$0.19
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.