Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Warriors, while the market favors Pelicans (52%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Warriors (-9.5)

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Warriors (64%) · Warriors at 49¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 10

Warriors49¢Pelicans51¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Warriors

Consensus Traders

Warriors 64%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$16.59

Smart Money Entry

49.2¢ → 48.5¢

-1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Pelicans 52%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Warriors49%

Pelicans52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Warriors7 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,520

Combined PnL+$9.54

Pelicans4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,157

Combined PnL+$7.06

Warriors — 64%Pelicans — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleWarriors 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrWarriors 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Warriors 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DV dv-pmCTR	Warriorsavg 49¢	$839.86	$848.43	+$8.57	47% 3608-4014 (7622)
nigiri99	Pelicansavg 50.3¢	$713.98	$717.1	+$3.12	45% 14905-18242 (33147)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Warriorsavg 49.7¢	$991.94	$491.01	-$2.27	52% 49502-46467 (95969)
NM NM-P	Pelicansavg 51¢	$178.5	$180.25	+$1.75	57% 22806-16903 (39709)
GC GC-P	Pelicansavg 51¢	$178.5	$180.25	+$1.75	57% 22656-16901 (39557)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Warriorsavg 49¢	$141.9	$143.35	+$1.45	45% 2685-3222 (5907)
VeryLucky888CTR	Warriorsavg 48.2¢	$119.5	$96.46	+$0.97	58% 53792-38296 (92088)
73 739633786CTR<$100	Warriorsavg 49¢	$77.25	$78.04	+$0.79	44% 452-565 (1017)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 49¢	$86.66	$42.9	+$0.43	51% 28824-28178 (57002)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 50¢	$80.78	$39.99	-$0.4	50% 49271-48803 (98074)
PA Pan9X<$100	Pelicansavg 50.3¢	$18.62	$19.06	+$0.43	53% 28380-25663 (54043)

dv-pmCTR

Warriors

Invested

$839.86

Value

$848.43

PnL

+$8.57

Record

47%

3608-4014 (7622)

nigiri99

Pelicans

Invested

$713.98

Value

$717.1

PnL

+$3.12

Record

45%

14905-18242 (33147)

FlaznorpCTR

Warriors

Invested

$991.94

Value

$491.01

PnL

-$2.27

Record

52%

49502-46467 (95969)

NM-P

Pelicans

Invested

$178.5

Value

$180.25

PnL

+$1.75

Record

57%

22806-16903 (39709)

GC-P

Pelicans

Invested

$178.5

Value

$180.25

PnL

+$1.75

Record

57%

22656-16901 (39557)

LightParadoxCTR

Warriors

Invested

$141.9

Value

$143.35

PnL

+$1.45

Record

45%

2685-3222 (5907)

VeryLucky888CTR

Warriors

Invested

$119.5

Value

$96.46

PnL

+$0.97

Record

58%

53792-38296 (92088)

739633786CTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$77.25

Value

$78.04

PnL

+$0.79

Record

44%

452-565 (1017)

sentrioCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$86.66

Value

$42.9

PnL

+$0.43

Record

51%

28824-28178 (57002)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$80.78

Value

$39.99

PnL

-$0.4

Record

50%

49271-48803 (98074)

Pan9X<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$18.62

Value

$19.06

PnL

+$0.43

Record

53%

28380-25663 (54043)

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Pelicans 52%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleWarriors 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrWarriors 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Warriors 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Warriors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.