Timberwolves vs. Rockets

10 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Rockets (59%) · Rockets at 71¢ · $60K held · ends Nov 5

Timberwolves30¢Rockets70¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Rockets

Consensus Traders

Rockets 59%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$60.0K

Combined PnL

-$321.92

Smart Money Entry

71.4¢ → 70.5¢

-1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

10 of 17 top traders (59%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Timberwolves30%

Rockets71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rockets10 traders

Total Value$28.9K

Total Shares40,799

Combined PnL-$153.92

Timberwolves7 traders

Total Value$20.0K

Total Shares68,071

Combined PnL-$168.01

Rockets — 59%Timberwolves — 41%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA darkumbreon88	Rocketsavg 71¢	$19.0K	$18.9K	-$133.72	64% 1892-1053 (2945)
JA jakepaulthegoat2008CTR	Timberwolvesavg 30¢	$15.6K	$15.4K	-$250.78	50% 7391-7520 (14911)
ET Ethanael02	Rocketsavg 73¢	$6.8K	$6.6K	-$139.62	63% 105-62 (167)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Timberwolvesavg 27.3¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$79.06	51% 4648-4479 (9127)
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 27.3¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$69.06
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 71¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$10
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100	Rocketsavg 70¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$61.58	71% 7122-2863 (9985)
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 70¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$15.39
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 28¢	$862.12	$908.31	+$46.18
VeryLucky888	Rocketsavg 70.8¢	$5.6K	$2.8K	+$117.51	58% 45442-32918 (78360)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Timberwolvesavg 27.3¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$50.18	54% 18039-15167 (33206)
HE HerdoniaARB<$100	Rocketsavg 71¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$32.42	51% 3584-3513 (7097)
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 71¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$9
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 27.2¢	$485.35	$526.78	+$41.42
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Rocketsavg 72.1¢	$2.0K	$1.6K	+$7.79	48% 59324-63332 (122656)
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 72.1¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$75.21
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 26.9¢	$320.88	$351.31	+$83
HI hi774cCTR	Timberwolvesavg 26¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$21.96	50% 4959-4888 (9847)
PU purplegattoARB<$100	Timberwolvesavg 28.4¢	$837.34	$810.77	-$26.57	49% 6204-6345 (12549)
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 28.4¢	$629.8	$621.04	-$22.43
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 75.1¢	$200.61	$189.73	-$4.14
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Timberwolvesavg 28¢	$483.09	$491.72	+$8.63	48% 303-327 (630)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Rocketsavg 70¢	$465.72	$483.79	+$4.73	40% 1343-2037 (3380)
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 70¢	$350	$352.5	+$2.5
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 26¢	$115.72	$131.29	+$2.23
GC GC-P	Rocketsavg 70¢	$419.44	$431.29	+$3.84	39% 1339-2113 (3452)
IC ic4creamCTR	Timberwolvesavg 28¢	$368.72	$367.62	-$0.21	57% 2701-2002 (4703)
GH ghorrockARB<$100	Rocketsavg 71.1¢	$163.98	$152.99	+$3.15	58% 19471-14317 (33788)
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 71.1¢	$112.7	$111.79	-$0.66
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 26.7¢	$37.31	$41.2	+$3.82
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Timberwolvesavg 28¢	$112	$114	+$2	51% 1793-1714 (3507)
BO BoomLaLaARB<$100	Rocketsavg 74.5¢	$100.93	$101.86	-$0.58	54% 11950-10370 (22320)
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 74.5¢	$77.54	$73.86	-$1.08
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 26¢	$26	$28	+$0.5
FE 0xfe78...0319<$100	Rocketsavg 70¢	$76.93	$77.48	+$0.55	—
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Rocketsavg 75.3¢	$68.74	$64.8	-$0.94	50% 20743-20989 (41732)
RL RLWG<$100	Rocketsavg 73¢	$33.88	$32.95	-$0.93	50% 8199-8222 (16421)
0xheavy888<$100	Rocketsavg 73¢	$14.6	$14.3	-$0.3	56% 7724-6188 (13912)
SE sentrio<$100	Rocketsavg 73¢	$13.46	$13.09	-$0.37	50% 25488-25195 (50683)
tradecraft<$100	Rocketsavg 70¢	$7.64	$7.69	+$0.05	51% 6278-6033 (12311)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 25¢	$1.75	$1.96	+$0.21	53% 4711-4218 (8929)

darkumbreon88

Rockets

Invested

$18,988.1

Value

$18.9K

PnL

-$133.72

Record

64%

1892-1053 (2945)

jakepaulthegoat2008CTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$15,612.66

Value

$15.4K

PnL

-$250.78

Record

50%

7391-7520 (14911)

Ethanael02

Rockets

Invested

$6,759.32

Value

$6.6K

PnL

-$139.62

Record

63%

105-62 (167)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$3,007.56

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$79.06

Record

51%

4648-4479 (9127)

Both legs:

Timberwolves$1,587.5927.3¢+$69.06

Rockets$1,419.9771¢+$10

AnonymousUsernameARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$3,017.42

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$61.58

Record

71%

7122-2863 (9985)

Both legs:

Rockets$2,155.370¢+$15.39

Timberwolves$862.1228¢+$46.18

VeryLucky888

Rockets

Invested

$5,635.1

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$117.51

Record

58%

45442-32918 (78360)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$2,381.26

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$50.18

Record

54%

18039-15167 (33206)

HerdoniaARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$1,704.16

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$32.42

Record

51%

3584-3513 (7097)

Both legs:

Rockets$1,218.871¢-$9

Timberwolves$485.3527.2¢+$41.42

38791873984189ARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$1,985.39

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$7.79

Record

48%

59324-63332 (122656)

Both legs:

Rockets$1,277.0472.1¢-$75.21

Timberwolves$320.8826.9¢+$83

hi774cCTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$1,142.16

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$21.96

Record

50%

4959-4888 (9847)

purplegattoARB<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$837.34

Value

$810.77

PnL

-$26.57

Record

49%

6204-6345 (12549)

Both legs:

Timberwolves$629.828.4¢-$22.43

Rockets$200.6175.1¢-$4.14

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$483.09

Value

$491.72

PnL

+$8.63

Record

48%

303-327 (630)

NM-PARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$465.72

Value

$483.79

PnL

+$4.73

Record

40%

1343-2037 (3380)

Both legs:

Rockets$35070¢+$2.5

Timberwolves$115.7226¢+$2.23

GC-P

Rockets

Invested

$419.44

Value

$431.29

PnL

+$3.84

Record

39%

1339-2113 (3452)

ic4creamCTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$368.72

Value

$367.62

PnL

-$0.21

Record

57%

2701-2002 (4703)

ghorrockARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$163.98

Value

$152.99

PnL

+$3.15

Record

58%

19471-14317 (33788)

Both legs:

Rockets$112.771.1¢-$0.66

Timberwolves$37.3126.7¢+$3.82

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$112

Value

$114

PnL

+$2

Record

51%

1793-1714 (3507)

BoomLaLaARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$100.93

Value

$101.86

PnL

-$0.58

Record

54%

11950-10370 (22320)

Both legs:

Rockets$77.5474.5¢-$1.08

Timberwolves$2626¢+$0.5

0xfe78...0319<$100

Rockets

Invested

$76.93

Value

$77.48

PnL

+$0.55

Record

—

omnibus-076daa<$100

Rockets

Invested

$68.74

Value

$64.8

PnL

-$0.94

Record

50%

20743-20989 (41732)

RLWG<$100

Rockets

Invested

$33.88

Value

$32.95

PnL

-$0.93

Record

50%

8199-8222 (16421)

0xheavy888<$100

Rockets

Invested

$14.6

Value

$14.3

PnL

-$0.3

Record

56%

7724-6188 (13912)

sentrio<$100

Rockets

Invested

$13.46

Value

$13.09

PnL

-$0.37

Record

50%

25488-25195 (50683)

tradecraft<$100

Rockets

Invested

$7.64

Value

$7.69

PnL

+$0.05

Record

51%

6278-6033 (12311)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$1.75

Value

$1.96

PnL

+$0.21

Record

53%

4711-4218 (8929)

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

10 of 17 top traders (59%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rockets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.