Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (57%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Bucks vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (57%) · Over at 43¢ · $533 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 57%
$533.27
$15.02
40¢ → 43¢
+7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 43%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Under 57%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 60¢ | $144.6 | $144.6 | +$0 | 50% 1407-1409 (2816) |
LI LimousinCTR | Overavg 40¢ | $116 | $124.7 | +$8.7 | 25% 212-653 (865) |
JO JoeyAroyyOOCTR | Overavg 40¢ | $113.3 | $113.3 | +$0 | 49% 95-99 (194) |
VE VenusianCTR | Overavg 40¢ | $102.4 | $110.08 | +$7.68 | 25% 212-653 (865) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 60¢ | $32.61 | $30.98 | -$1.63 | 31% 169-382 (551) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 60¢ | $6.6 | $6.67 | +$0.06 | 50% 274-269 (543) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Overavg 40¢ | $2.74 | $2.95 | +$0.21 | 25% 214-632 (846) |
Invested
$144.6
Value
$144.6
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1407-1409 (2816)
Invested
$116
Value
$124.7
PnL
+$8.7
Record
25%
212-653 (865)
Invested
$113.3
Value
$113.3
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
95-99 (194)
Invested
$102.4
Value
$110.08
PnL
+$7.68
Record
25%
212-653 (865)
Invested
$32.61
Value
$30.98
PnL
-$1.63
Record
31%
169-382 (551)
Invested
$6.6
Value
$6.67
PnL
+$0.06
Record
50%
274-269 (543)
Invested
$2.74
Value
$2.95
PnL
+$0.21
Record
25%
214-632 (846)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.