Bucks vs. Knicks: O/U 205.5

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (38%) · Over at 64¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 11

Over64¢Under36¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 38%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.7K

Combined PnL

$133.29

Smart Money Entry

47.3¢ → 63.5¢

+34% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 8 top traders (38%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over64%

Under37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares10,610

Combined PnL-$3.5

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,994

Combined PnL+$136.79

Over — 38%Under — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 47¢	$4.8K	$4.9K	+$55.35	54% 1657-1434 (3091)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Underavg 39¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$178.31	56% 488-383 (871)
└ Under leg	Underavg 39¢	$780	$1.1K	+$360
└ Over leg	Overavg 56.1¢	$775.89	$594.2	-$181.69
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 67.1¢	$1.1K	$919.86	-$205.88	50% 1504-1508 (3012)
└ Over leg	Overavg 67.1¢	$807.2	$607.49	-$199.71
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.5¢	$318.54	$312.37	-$6.18
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Underavg 49.6¢	$780.7	$822.08	+$41.38	54% 217-188 (405)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Underavg 38¢	$382.28	$513.06	+$130.78	30% 134-317 (451)
VE Venusian	Overavg 49.9¢	$460.12	$405.98	-$54.14	28% 279-730 (1009)
RN1CTR	Underavg 51.3¢	$238.52	$206.71	-$31.81	58% 3802-2784 (6586)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Overavg 49¢	$153.43	$128.32	+$11.06	28% 285-731 (1016)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$85.97	$97.38	+$13.49
└ Under leg	Underavg 48¢	$33.38	$30.95	-$2.43
TA takeormake<$100	Overavg 51¢	$80.17	$75.46	-$4.72	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$66.74	$61.29	-$5.45	28% 275-716 (991)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 28.8¢	$3.65	$2.86	+$1.89	54% 383-322 (705)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$4,801.19

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$55.35

Record

54%

1657-1434 (3091)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,555.89

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$178.31

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

Both legs:

Under$78039¢+$360

Over$775.8956.1¢-$181.69

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,125.74

Value

$919.86

PnL

-$205.88

Record

50%

1504-1508 (3012)

Both legs:

Over$807.267.1¢-$199.71

Under$318.5450.5¢-$6.18

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Under

Invested

$780.7

Value

$822.08

PnL

+$41.38

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

justaluckydudeCTR

Under

Invested

$382.28

Value

$513.06

PnL

+$130.78

Record

30%

134-317 (451)

Venusian

Over

Invested

$460.12

Value

$405.98

PnL

-$54.14

Record

28%

279-730 (1009)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$238.52

Value

$206.71

PnL

-$31.81

Record

58%

3802-2784 (6586)

LimousinARB<$100

Over

Invested

$153.43

Value

$128.32

PnL

+$11.06

Record

28%

285-731 (1016)

Both legs:

Invested

$80.17

Value

$75.46

PnL

-$4.72

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$66.74

Value

$61.29

PnL

-$5.45

Record

28%

275-716 (991)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.65

Value

$2.86

PnL

+$1.89

Record

54%

383-322 (705)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 8 top traders (38%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.