Bucks vs. Knicks: O/U 203.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 65¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 67%
$2.2K
-$170.89
62.7¢ → 64.5¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 65%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA takeormake | Overavg 59.5¢ | $710.8 | $1.2K | +$447.29 | 59% 3119-2207 (5326) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Overavg 67¢ | $627.93 | $899.97 | +$272.04 | 56% 502-393 (895) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 38.6¢ | $912.8 | $70.9 | -$841.9 | 50% 1558-1564 (3122) |
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100 | Overavg 59¢ | $15.85 | $26.05 | +$10.19 | 54% 217-188 (405) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $64.69 | $4.31 | -$60.38 | 58% 3828-2805 (6633) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $2.26 | $4.13 | +$1.87 | 54% 1660-1438 (3098) |
Invested
$710.8
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$447.29
Record
59%
3119-2207 (5326)
Invested
$627.93
Value
$899.97
PnL
+$272.04
Record
56%
502-393 (895)
Invested
$912.8
Value
$70.9
PnL
-$841.9
Record
50%
1558-1564 (3122)
Invested
$15.85
Value
$26.05
PnL
+$10.19
Record
54%
217-188 (405)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$64.69
Value
$4.31
PnL
-$60.38
Record
58%
3828-2805 (6633)
Invested
$2.26
Value
$4.13
PnL
+$1.87
Record
54%
1660-1438 (3098)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.