Spread: Knicks (-34.5)
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Bucks (25%) · Bucks at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Bucks
4
Bucks 25%
1 arb excluded
$5.2K
$232.98
Research grade
AvoidBucks at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on Bucks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Bucksavg 81.3¢ | $3.4K | $3.6K | +$222 | 56% 502-393 (895) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Knicksavg 18.9¢ | $1.4K | $1.6K | +$178.55 | 50% 1558-1564 (3122) |
| └ Bucks leg | Bucksavg 67¢ | $704.64 | $840.9 | +$136.26 | |
| └ Knicks leg | Knicksavg 18.9¢ | $719.15 | $761.44 | +$42.29 | |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Knicksavg 15.1¢ | $28.16 | $37.34 | +$9.18 | 43% 2558-3353 (5911) |
TA takeormakeCTR<$100 | Knicksavg 19¢ | $2.9 | $3.05 | +$0.15 | 59% 3119-2207 (5326) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Knicksavg 4¢ | $0.41 | $2.06 | +$1.65 | 58% 3828-2805 (6633) |
Invested
$3,380.69
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$222
Record
56%
502-393 (895)
Invested
$1,423.79
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$178.55
Record
50%
1558-1564 (3122)
Both legs:
Invested
$28.16
Value
$37.34
PnL
+$9.18
Record
43%
2558-3353 (5911)
Invested
$2.9
Value
$3.05
PnL
+$0.15
Record
59%
3119-2207 (5326)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$0.41
Value
$2.06
PnL
+$1.65
Record
58%
3828-2805 (6633)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.