Spread: Knicks (-32.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Bucks (80%) · Bucks at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Bucks
5
Bucks 80%
1 arb excluded
$2.8K
-$326.08
78.1¢ → 99.5¢
+27% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidBucks at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+5 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Bucks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Bucksavg 81.2¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$177.95 | 50% 1558-1564 (3122) |
| └ Knicks leg | Knicksavg 19.7¢ | $350.58 | $877.03 | +$517.13 | |
| └ Bucks leg | Bucksavg 81.2¢ | $902.45 | $563.27 | -$339.18 | |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Bucksavg 79.3¢ | $1.4K | $1.1K | -$303.93 | 56% 502-393 (895) |
 RN1 | Bucksavg 65¢ | $109.14 | $136.1 | +$26.96 | 58% 3828-2805 (6633) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Knicksavg 29¢ | $140.65 | $92.15 | -$48.5 | 59% 3119-2207 (5326) |
 balthazar<$100 | Bucksavg 79¢ | $10.89 | $11.16 | +$0.28 | 50% 4583-4495 (9078) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Bucksavg 89¢ | $9.79 | $8.91 | -$0.88 | 35% 266-489 (755) |
Invested
$1,274.1
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$177.95
Record
50%
1558-1564 (3122)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,405.98
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$303.93
Record
56%
502-393 (895)
RN1Invested
$109.14
Value
$136.1
PnL
+$26.96
Record
58%
3828-2805 (6633)
Invested
$140.65
Value
$92.15
PnL
-$48.5
Record
59%
3119-2207 (5326)
balthazar<$100Invested
$10.89
Value
$11.16
PnL
+$0.28
Record
50%
4583-4495 (9078)
Invested
$9.79
Value
$8.91
PnL
-$0.88
Record
35%
266-489 (755)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.