Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Bucks, while the market favors Knicks (53%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Knicks (-28.5)

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Bucks (40%) · Bucks at 48¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 11

Knicks53¢Bucks47¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bucks

Consensus Traders

Bucks 40%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$133.63

Smart Money Entry

50.4¢ → 47.5¢

-6% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidBucks at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bucks

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Knicks 53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Knicks53%

Bucks48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bucks2 traders

Total Value$742.1

Total Shares1,092

Combined PnL+$191.14

Knicks3 traders

Total Value$319.86

Total Shares1,117

Combined PnL-$57.51

Bucks — 40%Knicks — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Bucks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBucks 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Bucks 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Knicksavg 49.2¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$156.7	56% 488-383 (871)
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 49.2¢	$841.09	$863.09	+$22
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 67¢	$683.6	$504.9	-$178.7
BI biying88888CTR	Bucksavg 47.4¢	$474.53	$695.69	+$221.16	27% 63-170 (233)
FL Flaznorp	Knicksavg 33.9¢	$369.37	$310.4	-$58.97	50% 1504-1508 (3012)
RN1ARB<$100	Bucksavg 51.1¢	$211.13	$216.89	+$5.76	58% 3802-2784 (6586)
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 51.1¢	$115.16	$118.33	+$3.17
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 46.2¢	$95.96	$98.56	+$2.6
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Bucksavg 84¢	$76.43	$46.4	-$30.03	34% 233-457 (690)
TA takeormake<$100	Knicksavg 32¢	$6.4	$5.7	-$0.7	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
balthazar<$100	Knicksavg 20¢	$1.6	$3.76	+$2.16	50% 4577-4487 (9064)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Knicks

Invested

$1,524.69

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$156.7

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

Both legs:

Knicks$841.0949.2¢+$22

Bucks$683.667¢-$178.7

biying88888CTR

Bucks

Invested

$474.53

Value

$695.69

PnL

+$221.16

Record

27%

63-170 (233)

Flaznorp

Knicks

Invested

$369.37

Value

$310.4

PnL

-$58.97

Record

50%

1504-1508 (3012)

RN1ARB<$100

Bucks

Invested

$211.13

Value

$216.89

PnL

+$5.76

Record

58%

3802-2784 (6586)

Both legs:

Bucks$115.1651.1¢+$3.17

Knicks$95.9646.2¢+$2.6

sentrioCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$76.43

Value

$46.4

PnL

-$30.03

Record

34%

233-457 (690)

takeormake<$100

Knicks

Invested

$6.4

Value

$5.7

PnL

-$0.7

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

balthazar<$100

Knicks

Invested

$1.6

Value

$3.76

PnL

+$2.16

Record

50%

4577-4487 (9064)

Research grade

AvoidBucks at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Bucks

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Knicks 53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Bucks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBucks 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Bucks 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bucks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.