Spread: Knicks (-24.5)

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Knicks (82%) · Knicks at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 11

Knicks>99¢Bucks<1¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Knicks

Consensus Traders

Knicks 82%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.9K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

44.7¢ → 99.5¢

+123% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidKnicks at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

9 of 11 top traders (82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Knicks100%

Bucks1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Knicks9 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares5,182

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Bucks2 traders

Total Value$8.15

Total Shares805

Combined PnL-$379.6

Knicks — 82%Bucks — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Knicks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKnicks 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedKnicks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Knicks 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Knicksavg 57.6¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$23.78	56% 502-393 (895)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Bucksavg 55.1¢	$1.6K	$1.2K	-$337.93	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 44.8¢	$410.09	$667.94	+$257.85
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 55.1¢	$1.2K	$573.34	-$595.77
TA takeormake	Knicksavg 40.7¢	$356.69	$871.64	+$514.95	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
VE Venusian	Knicksavg 38.9¢	$274.37	$701.95	+$427.58	28% 304-772 (1076)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Knicksavg 27.8¢	$318.74	$489.67	+$305.47	54% 217-188 (405)
RN1	Knicksavg 27.4¢	$114.18	$303.94	+$189.76	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
LI LightParadox	Knicksavg 38¢	$65.82	$172.34	+$106.52	28% 298-765 (1063)
LI Limousin	Knicksavg 39¢	$66.74	$170.27	+$103.53	29% 313-784 (1097)
MA MadridTime<$100	Knicksavg 36.8¢	$5.6	$15.16	+$9.56	29% 307-748 (1055)
balthazar<$100	Knicksavg 21¢	$4.2	$14.6	+$10.4	50% 4583-4495 (9078)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Bucksavg 75¢	$3.75	$4.15	+$0.4	35% 266-489 (755)
BI biying88888CTR	Bucksavg 48¢	$384	$4	-$380	27% 63-170 (233)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Knicks

Invested

$1,896.65

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$23.78

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Bucks

Invested

$1,579.2

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$337.93

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

Both legs:

Knicks$410.0944.8¢+$257.85

Bucks$1,169.1155.1¢-$595.77

takeormake

Knicks

Invested

$356.69

Value

$871.64

PnL

+$514.95

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

Venusian

Knicks

Invested

$274.37

Value

$701.95

PnL

+$427.58

Record

28%

304-772 (1076)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Knicks

Invested

$318.74

Value

$489.67

PnL

+$305.47

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

RN1

Knicks

Invested

$114.18

Value

$303.94

PnL

+$189.76

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

LightParadox

Knicks

Invested

$65.82

Value

$172.34

PnL

+$106.52

Record

28%

298-765 (1063)

Limousin

Knicks

Invested

$66.74

Value

$170.27

PnL

+$103.53

Record

29%

313-784 (1097)

MadridTime<$100

Knicks

Invested

$5.6

Value

$15.16

PnL

+$9.56

Record

29%

307-748 (1055)

balthazar<$100

Knicks

Invested

$4.2

Value

$14.6

PnL

+$10.4

Record

50%

4583-4495 (9078)

sentrioCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$3.75

Value

$4.15

PnL

+$0.4

Record

35%

266-489 (755)

biying88888CTR

Bucks

Invested

$384

Value

PnL

-$380

Record

27%

63-170 (233)

Research grade

AvoidKnicks at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

9 of 11 top traders (82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Knicks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKnicks 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedKnicks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Knicks 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Knicks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.