Spread: Celtics (-4.5)
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (33%) · Celtics at 72¢ · $814 held · ends Nov 5
⚠️
Avoid
Celtics
6
Celtics 33%
$814.38
-$20.51
70.4¢ → 71.5¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidCeltics at 72%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465 | Celticsavg 70.1¢ | $418.31 | $435.81 | +$17.5 | 56% 6179-4951 (11130) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Bucksavg 30.7¢ | $284.85 | $250.65 | -$34.19 | 51% 24233-22959 (47192) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Bucksavg 29.3¢ | $88.84 | $86.49 | -$2.35 | 48% 59324-63332 (122656) |
 nigiri99<$100 | Celticsavg 75.8¢ | $24.25 | $23.36 | -$0.89 | 46% 8410-9880 (18290) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 28¢ | $17.34 | $16.72 | -$0.62 | 50% 25488-25195 (50683) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 26¢ | $1.3 | $1.35 | +$0.05 | 58% 19471-14317 (33788) |
Invested
$418.31
Value
$435.81
PnL
+$17.5
Record
56%
6179-4951 (11130)
Invested
$284.85
Value
$250.65
PnL
-$34.19
Record
51%
24233-22959 (47192)
Invested
$88.84
Value
$86.49
PnL
-$2.35
Record
48%
59324-63332 (122656)
nigiri99<$100Invested
$24.25
Value
$23.36
PnL
-$0.89
Record
46%
8410-9880 (18290)
Invested
$17.34
Value
$16.72
PnL
-$0.62
Record
50%
25488-25195 (50683)
Invested
$1.3
Value
$1.35
PnL
+$0.05
Record
58%
19471-14317 (33788)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.