Heat vs. Jazz: O/U 256.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 97¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 57%
$2.0K
-$73.84
90.8¢ → 97.1¢
+7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 97%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Underavg 90¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$26.41 | 56% 502-393 (895) |
 RN1 | Underavg 92¢ | $443.43 | $472.11 | +$28.68 | 58% 3828-2805 (6633) |
38 38791873984189 | Underavg 92.3¢ | $243.66 | $258.48 | +$14.81 | 48% 959-1032 (1991) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Underavg 92¢ | $46 | $48.98 | +$2.98 | 49% 446-472 (918) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Overavg 9.3¢ | $184.09 | $37.52 | -$146.57 | 50% 1558-1564 (3122) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 5¢ | $0.25 | $0.4 | +$0.15 | 55% 399-332 (731) |
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100 | Overavg 8¢ | $0.4 | $0.1 | -$0.3 | 51% 3172-3073 (6245) |
Invested
$1,188.54
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$26.41
Record
56%
502-393 (895)
RN1Invested
$443.43
Value
$472.11
PnL
+$28.68
Record
58%
3828-2805 (6633)
Invested
$243.66
Value
$258.48
PnL
+$14.81
Record
48%
959-1032 (1991)
Invested
$46
Value
$48.98
PnL
+$2.98
Record
49%
446-472 (918)
Invested
$184.09
Value
$37.52
PnL
-$146.57
Record
50%
1558-1564 (3122)
Invested
$0.25
Value
$0.4
PnL
+$0.15
Record
55%
399-332 (731)
Invested
$0.4
Value
$0.1
PnL
-$0.3
Record
51%
3172-3073 (6245)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.