Heat vs. Jazz: O/U 246.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 92¢ · $169 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 50%
$169.34
$4.34
77.3¢ → 92¢
+19% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 92%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 78.1¢ | $98.38 | $119.07 | +$20.69 | 58% 3828-2805 (6633) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100 | Underavg 75¢ | $30 | $31.2 | +$1.2 | 56% 502-393 (895) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Overavg 22¢ | $25.52 | $8.12 | -$17.4 | 50% 1558-1564 (3122) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Underavg 76¢ | $7.6 | $7.8 | +$0.2 | 49% 446-472 (918) |
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100 | Overavg 7¢ | $2.8 | $2.8 | +$0 | 51% 3172-3073 (6245) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Overavg 14¢ | $0.7 | $0.35 | -$0.35 | 48% 959-1032 (1991) |
RN1Invested
$98.38
Value
$119.07
PnL
+$20.69
Record
58%
3828-2805 (6633)
Invested
$30
Value
$31.2
PnL
+$1.2
Record
56%
502-393 (895)
Invested
$25.52
Value
$8.12
PnL
-$17.4
Record
50%
1558-1564 (3122)
Invested
$7.6
Value
$7.8
PnL
+$0.2
Record
49%
446-472 (918)
Invested
$2.8
Value
$2.8
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
3172-3073 (6245)
Invested
$0.7
Value
$0.35
PnL
-$0.35
Record
48%
959-1032 (1991)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.