Heat vs. Jazz: O/U 234.5

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (78%) · Under at 71¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 11

Over30¢Under70¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 78%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

$323.75

Smart Money Entry

55.2¢ → 70.5¢

+28% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over30%

Under71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares4,507

Combined PnL+$889.42

Over2 traders

Total Value$361.91

Total Shares1,938

Combined PnL-$565.68

Under — 78%Over — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA marvelousmarvin	Underavg 52¢	$1.3K	$1.9K	+$651.93	26% 12-35 (47)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 49¢	$703.39	$944.12	+$240.73	56% 502-393 (895)
RN1	Underavg 71¢	$716.46	$690.37	-$26.09	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Overavg 48¢	$911.52	$354.58	-$556.94	54% 217-188 (405)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Overavg 48.1¢	$300.85	$254.78	-$46.08	54% 1660-1438 (3098)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$111.49	$181.35	+$69.86
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.1¢	$189.36	$73.43	-$115.93
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 47.5¢	$130.57	$125.79	-$4.79	48% 959-1032 (1991)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$58.8	$97.59	+$38.79
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.5¢	$71.77	$28.19	-$43.58
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 48.5¢	$85.51	$109.88	+$24.37	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 64¢	$92.83	$89.24	-$3.58	49% 220-228 (448)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Underavg 68¢	$20.4	$24.4	+$4	51% 3172-3073 (6245)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 64¢	$18.27	$13.7	-$1.93	55% 399-332 (731)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 40.9¢	$16.07	$7.33	-$8.74	49% 446-472 (918)

marvelousmarvin

Under

Invested

$1,255.56

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$651.93

Record

26%

12-35 (47)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$703.39

Value

$944.12

PnL

+$240.73

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

RN1

Under

Invested

$716.46

Value

$690.37

PnL

-$26.09

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Over

Invested

$911.52

Value

$354.58

PnL

-$556.94

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Over

Invested

$300.85

Value

$254.78

PnL

-$46.08

Record

54%

1660-1438 (3098)

Both legs:

Under$111.4950¢+$69.86

Over$189.3648.1¢-$115.93

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$130.57

Value

$125.79

PnL

-$4.79

Record

48%

959-1032 (1991)

Both legs:

Under$58.849¢+$38.79

Over$71.7747.5¢-$43.58

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$85.51

Value

$109.88

PnL

+$24.37

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$92.83

Value

$89.24

PnL

-$3.58

Record

49%

220-228 (448)

6512395314597884<$100

Under

Invested

$20.4

Value

$24.4

PnL

+$4

Record

51%

3172-3073 (6245)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$18.27

Value

$13.7

PnL

-$1.93

Record

55%

399-332 (731)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$16.07

Value

$7.33

PnL

-$8.74

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.