Heat vs. Jazz: O/U 232.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 79¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11

Over22¢Under78¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 40%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$179.89

Smart Money Entry

53.6¢ → 78.5¢

+46% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 79%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over22%

Under79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,760

Combined PnL+$362.59

Over6 traders

Total Value$375.14

Total Shares1,105

Combined PnL-$182.7

Under — 40%Over — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (10 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 56¢	$722.09	$1.0K	+$289.89	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
RN1	Underavg 46¢	$285.47	$355.9	+$70.43	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Overavg 54¢	$314.14	$174.52	-$139.62	54% 217-188 (405)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 41.9¢	$96.3	$107.92	+$11.61	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$78.59	$50.17	-$28.43	54% 1660-1438 (3098)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 53.9¢	$41.5	$23.1	-$18.4	48% 959-1032 (1991)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Underavg 70¢	$14	$14	+$0	51% 3172-3073 (6245)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$17.13	$13.62	-$3.51	49% 446-472 (918)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Underavg 45¢	$4.1	$6.37	+$2.28	56% 502-393 (895)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 52.5¢	$10.18	$5.82	-$4.36	55% 399-332 (731)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$722.09

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$289.89

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

RN1

Under

Invested

$285.47

Value

$355.9

PnL

+$70.43

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Over

Invested

$314.14

Value

$174.52

PnL

-$139.62

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$96.3

Value

$107.92

PnL

+$11.61

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$78.59

Value

$50.17

PnL

-$28.43

Record

54%

1660-1438 (3098)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$41.5

Value

$23.1

PnL

-$18.4

Record

48%

959-1032 (1991)

6512395314597884<$100

Under

Invested

$14

Value

$14

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

3172-3073 (6245)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.13

Value

$13.62

PnL

-$3.51

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Under

Invested

$4.1

Value

$6.37

PnL

+$2.28

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.18

Value

$5.82

PnL

-$4.36

Record

55%

399-332 (731)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 79%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (10 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.