Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (63%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Heat vs. Jazz: O/U 229.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 38¢ · $701 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 67%
1 arb excluded
$701.15
$56.78
44.7¢ → 37.5¢
-16% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 38%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100 | Underavg 41¢ | $362.03 | $409.8 | +$47.77 | 56% 502-393 (895) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 41¢ | $208.47 | $208.47 | +$0 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 45¢ | $153.55 | $201.33 | +$47.77 | |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 44¢ | $117.86 | $158.04 | +$40.18 | 51% 330-315 (645) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $76.93 | $98.67 | +$21.74 | 54% 1660-1438 (3098) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $21.74 | $20.65 | -$1.1 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 57¢ | $13.89 | $7.44 | -$3.34 | 55% 399-332 (731) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $4.5 | $4.5 | +$0 | 26% 185-519 (704) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Underavg 55¢ | $2.75 | $2.05 | -$0.7 | 50% 1558-1564 (3122) |
Invested
$362.03
Value
$409.8
PnL
+$47.77
Record
56%
502-393 (895)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$117.86
Value
$158.04
PnL
+$40.18
Record
51%
330-315 (645)
Invested
$76.93
Value
$98.67
PnL
+$21.74
Record
54%
1660-1438 (3098)
Invested
$21.74
Value
$20.65
PnL
-$1.1
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$13.89
Value
$7.44
PnL
-$3.34
Record
55%
399-332 (731)
Invested
$4.5
Value
$4.5
PnL
+$0
Record
26%
185-519 (704)
Invested
$2.75
Value
$2.05
PnL
-$0.7
Record
50%
1558-1564 (3122)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.