Heat vs. Jazz: O/U 225.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 56¢ · $28K held · ended Nov 11

Over56¢Under44¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$28.3K

Combined PnL

-$143.28

Smart Money Entry

55.2¢ → 56.5¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over56%

Under44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$14.0K

Total Shares27,873

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Under6 traders

Total Value$14.3K

Total Shares28,912

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SA Sassy-Bucket	Overavg 55¢	$15.1K	$13.7K	$-1.4K	— 3-7 (10)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 45¢	$11.1K	$12.3K	+$1.2K	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 45¢	$900	$1,000	+$100	51% 330-315 (645)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	Underavg 50¢	$430.97	$370.63	-$60.34	52% 2582-2418 (5000)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 41¢	$319.89	$335.7	+$15.81	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 50¢	$266.96	$266.96	+$0	28% 298-765 (1063)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 65.6¢	$305.8	$247.16	-$58.65	56% 502-393 (895)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$66.75	$66.75	+$0	29% 313-784 (1097)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 50¢	$2.53	$2.53	+$0	55% 399-332 (731)
TA takeormake<$100	Overavg 57¢	$2.85	$2.5	-$0.35	59% 3119-2207 (5326)

Sassy-Bucket

Over

Invested

$15,068.33

Value

$13.7K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

—

3-7 (10)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$11,070.81

Value

$12.3K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$900

Value

$1,000

PnL

+$100

Record

51%

330-315 (645)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Under

Invested

$430.97

Value

$370.63

PnL

-$60.34

Record

52%

2582-2418 (5000)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$319.89

Value

$335.7

PnL

+$15.81

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$266.96

Value

$266.96

PnL

+$0

Record

28%

298-765 (1063)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$305.8

Value

$247.16

PnL

-$58.65

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$66.75

Value

$66.75

PnL

+$0

Record

29%

313-784 (1097)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$2.53

Value

$2.53

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

399-332 (731)

takeormake<$100

Over

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$0.35

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.