Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (61%). 2 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Heat vs. Jazz: O/U 222.5

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (25%) · Under at 40¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 11

Over61¢Under39¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 25%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

-$332.73

Smart Money Entry

50.5¢ → 39.5¢

-22% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 40%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Over 61%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over61%

Under40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares4,803

Combined PnL-$406.01

Over6 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares4,420

Combined PnL+$73.29

Under — 25%Over — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA marvelousmarvinCTR	Underavg 50.5¢	$2.4K	$2.0K	-$407.67	26% 12-35 (47)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Overavg 50¢	$899.5	$890.51	-$9	54% 217-188 (405)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 49¢	$509.4	$500.8	-$8.6	56% 502-393 (895)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 50.9¢	$333.69	$376.87	+$43.18	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Overavg 52.7¢	$352.82	$334.85	-$17.97	51% 3172-3073 (6245)
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.7¢	$248.82	$233.85	-$14.97
└ Under leg	Underavg 52¢	$104	$101	-$3
38 38791873984189	Overavg 49¢	$255.63	$271.86	+$42.97	48% 959-1032 (1991)
RN1	Overavg 49.3¢	$249.54	$250.47	+$0.93	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Overavg 49.5¢	$223.87	$242.79	+$18.92	54% 1660-1438 (3098)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.5¢	$165.55	$190.64	+$25.08
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.1¢	$58.31	$52.15	-$6.16
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 51.8¢	$70.21	$38.98	+$3.8	49% 446-472 (918)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 37.6¢	$4.81	$1.4	+$1.66	55% 399-332 (731)

marvelousmarvinCTR

Under

Invested

$2,423.88

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$407.67

Record

26%

12-35 (47)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Over

Invested

$899.5

Value

$890.51

PnL

-$9

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$509.4

Value

$500.8

PnL

-$8.6

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$333.69

Value

$376.87

PnL

+$43.18

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$352.82

Value

$334.85

PnL

-$17.97

Record

51%

3172-3073 (6245)

Both legs:

Over$248.8252.7¢-$14.97

Under$10452¢-$3

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$255.63

Value

$271.86

PnL

+$42.97

Record

48%

959-1032 (1991)

RN1

Over

Invested

$249.54

Value

$250.47

PnL

+$0.93

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Over

Invested

$223.87

Value

$242.79

PnL

+$18.92

Record

54%

1660-1438 (3098)

Both legs:

Over$165.5549.5¢+$25.08

Under$58.3148.1¢-$6.16

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$70.21

Value

$38.98

PnL

+$3.8

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.81

Value

$1.4

PnL

+$1.66

Record

55%

399-332 (731)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 40%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Over 61%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.7%

39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$139.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

239.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.