Heat vs. Jazz: O/U 212.5

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (63%) · Over at 83¢ · $825 held · ended Nov 11

Over83¢Under17¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 63%

Total Value

$824.67

Combined PnL

$73.9

Smart Money Entry

80.8¢ → 83¢

+3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 83%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over83%

Under17%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$621.85

Total Shares713

Combined PnL+$30.16

Under3 traders

Total Value$202.82

Total Shares925

Combined PnL+$43.74

Over — 63%Under — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Overavg 81.2¢	$251.66	$252.73	+$1.06	51% 3172-3073 (6245)
DA darkumbreon88	Overavg 81¢	$153.5	$164.87	+$11.37	61% 900-578 (1478)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 78¢	$108.57	$124.74	+$16.17	48% 959-1032 (1991)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Underavg 14.8¢	$50.62	$82.37	+$31.74	56% 502-393 (895)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 16.3¢	$55.88	$82.22	+$26.34	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 83.4¢	$74.52	$74.64	+$1.22	49% 446-472 (918)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 22¢	$52.58	$38.24	-$14.34	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 81¢	$4.53	$4.87	+$0.34	55% 399-332 (731)

6512395314597884

Over

Invested

$251.66

Value

$252.73

PnL

+$1.06

Record

51%

3172-3073 (6245)

darkumbreon88

Over

Invested

$153.5

Value

$164.87

PnL

+$11.37

Record

61%

900-578 (1478)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$108.57

Value

$124.74

PnL

+$16.17

Record

48%

959-1032 (1991)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$50.62

Value

$82.37

PnL

+$31.74

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$55.88

Value

$82.22

PnL

+$26.34

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$74.52

Value

$74.64

PnL

+$1.22

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$52.58

Value

$38.24

PnL

-$14.34

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$4.53

Value

$4.87

PnL

+$0.34

Record

55%

399-332 (731)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 83%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.7%

83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.