Heat vs. Jazz: O/U 210.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 91¢ · $419 held · ended Nov 11

Over91¢Under9¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 60%

Total Value

$419.01

Combined PnL

$13.16

Smart Money Entry

85.3¢ → 90.5¢

+6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over91%

Under10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$374.72

Total Shares402

Combined PnL+$3.76

Under2 traders

Total Value$44.29

Total Shares268

Combined PnL+$9.39

Over — 60%Under — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 87¢	$240.15	$242.51	+$2.37	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 82.6¢	$126.38	$127.75	+$1.37	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Underavg 13¢	$31.72	$40.26	+$8.54	56% 502-393 (895)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 83¢	$4.43	$4.46	+$0.03	35% 266-489 (755)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 13¢	$3.17	$4.03	+$0.85	48% 959-1032 (1991)

RN1

Over

Invested

$240.15

Value

$242.51

PnL

+$2.37

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$126.38

Value

$127.75

PnL

+$1.37

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$31.72

Value

$40.26

PnL

+$8.54

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$4.43

Value

$4.46

PnL

+$0.03

Record

35%

266-489 (755)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.17

Value

$4.03

PnL

+$0.85

Record

48%

959-1032 (1991)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.