Heat vs. Jazz: O/U 202.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 90¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 60%
$1.5K
$20.04
89.1¢ → 89.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 90%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Overavg 88¢ | $944.32 | $989.12 | +$44.8 | 56% 502-393 (895) |
 RN1 | Overavg 92¢ | $360.64 | $354.78 | -$5.86 | 58% 3828-2805 (6633) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 12¢ | $120 | $100.5 | -$19.5 | 50% 1558-1564 (3122) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Overavg 91¢ | $10.92 | $11.52 | +$0.6 | 48% 959-1032 (1991) |
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100 | Underavg 4¢ | $8 | $8 | -$0 | 51% 3172-3073 (6245) |
Invested
$944.32
Value
$989.12
PnL
+$44.8
Record
56%
502-393 (895)
RN1Invested
$360.64
Value
$354.78
PnL
-$5.86
Record
58%
3828-2805 (6633)
Invested
$120
Value
$100.5
PnL
-$19.5
Record
50%
1558-1564 (3122)
Invested
$10.92
Value
$11.52
PnL
+$0.6
Record
48%
959-1032 (1991)
Invested
$8
Value
$8
PnL
-$0
Record
51%
3172-3073 (6245)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.