Heat vs. Jazz: O/U 200.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 99¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 43%
$2.4K
-$30.38
98.2¢ → 99¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 99%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+33 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 6512395314597884 | Overavg 98.3¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$20 | 51% 3173-3073 (6246) |
38 38791873984189 | Overavg 97.9¢ | $547.45 | $484.17 | -$13.55 | 48% 969-1052 (2021) |
PA Pan9X | Overavg 98.3¢ | $317.48 | $296.03 | -$7.76 | 49% 450-474 (924) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 2.1¢ | $54.95 | $29.23 | -$25.72 | 50% 1562-1566 (3128) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100 | Underavg 4.9¢ | $7.83 | $4.79 | -$3.04 | 56% 504-395 (899) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 7¢ | $0.46 | $0.2 | -$0.27 | 54% 401-336 (737) |
FO forecastication4CTR<$100 | Underavg 4¢ | $0.2 | $0.15 | -$0.05 | 11% 24-189 (213) |
Invested
$1,572
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$20
Record
51%
3173-3073 (6246)
Invested
$547.45
Value
$484.17
PnL
-$13.55
Record
48%
969-1052 (2021)
Invested
$317.48
Value
$296.03
PnL
-$7.76
Record
49%
450-474 (924)
Invested
$54.95
Value
$29.23
PnL
-$25.72
Record
50%
1562-1566 (3128)
Invested
$7.83
Value
$4.79
PnL
-$3.04
Record
56%
504-395 (899)
Invested
$0.46
Value
$0.2
PnL
-$0.27
Record
54%
401-336 (737)
Invested
$0.2
Value
$0.15
PnL
-$0.05
Record
11%
24-189 (213)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.