Spread: Jazz (-7.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Heat (67%) · Heat at 97¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Heat
6
Heat 67%
$1.4K
-$20.55
90.5¢ → 97.4¢
+8% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidHeat at 97%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Heat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Heatavg 92.4¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$51.2 | 56% 502-393 (895) |
65 6512395314597884 | Heatavg 81¢ | $162 | $180 | +$18 | 51% 3172-3073 (6245) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Heatavg 90¢ | $45.22 | $48.99 | +$3.77 | 49% 446-472 (918) |
 RN1CTR | Jazzavg 17.2¢ | $103.65 | $29.08 | -$40.62 | 58% 3828-2805 (6633) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Jazzavg 7.4¢ | $81.77 | $28.23 | -$53.54 | 50% 1558-1564 (3122) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Heatavg 86¢ | $13.76 | $14.4 | +$0.64 | 48% 959-1032 (1991) |
Invested
$1,020.65
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$51.2
Record
56%
502-393 (895)
Invested
$162
Value
$180
PnL
+$18
Record
51%
3172-3073 (6245)
Invested
$45.22
Value
$48.99
PnL
+$3.77
Record
49%
446-472 (918)
RN1CTRInvested
$103.65
Value
$29.08
PnL
-$40.62
Record
58%
3828-2805 (6633)
Invested
$81.77
Value
$28.23
PnL
-$53.54
Record
50%
1558-1564 (3122)
Invested
$13.76
Value
$14.4
PnL
+$0.64
Record
48%
959-1032 (1991)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.