Spread: Jazz (-5.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Heat (33%) · Heat at 86¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 11

Jazz14¢Heat86¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Heat

Consensus Traders

Heat 33%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$24.1

Smart Money Entry

84.6¢ → 85.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 86%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Jazz14%

Heat86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Heat3 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,265

Combined PnL-$51.33

Jazz6 traders

Total Value$175.66

Total Shares897

Combined PnL+$27.23

Heat — 33%Jazz — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Heat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJazz 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrJazz 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Jazz 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Heatavg 84.4¢	$808.84	$771.73	-$37.11	50% 1503-1507 (3010)
SE sentrio	Heatavg 85.5¢	$199.98	$188.29	-$11.69	34% 233-457 (690)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Jazzavg 16.3¢	$60.41	$74.21	+$13.79	52% 128-120 (248)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Heatavg 84¢	$60.53	$58.01	-$2.52	61% 900-577 (1477)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Jazzavg 19¢	$51.68	$53.04	+$1.36	28% 274-715 (989)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Jazzavg 14¢	$25.48	$34.58	+$9.1	48% 947-1017 (1964)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Jazzavg 14¢	$5.32	$7.22	+$1.9	49% 443-470 (913)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Jazzavg 17¢	$4.94	$5.67	+$0.73	28% 278-703 (981)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR<$100	Jazzavg 12¢	$0.6	$0.95	+$0.35	51% 3680-3509 (7189)

Flaznorp

Heat

Invested

$808.84

Value

$771.73

PnL

-$37.11

Record

50%

1503-1507 (3010)

sentrio

Heat

Invested

$199.98

Value

$188.29

PnL

-$11.69

Record

34%

233-457 (690)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$60.41

Value

$74.21

PnL

+$13.79

Record

52%

128-120 (248)

darkumbreon88<$100

Heat

Invested

$60.53

Value

$58.01

PnL

-$2.52

Record

61%

900-577 (1477)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$51.68

Value

$53.04

PnL

+$1.36

Record

28%

274-715 (989)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$25.48

Value

$34.58

PnL

+$9.1

Record

48%

947-1017 (1964)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$5.32

Value

$7.22

PnL

+$1.9

Record

49%

443-470 (913)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$4.94

Value

$5.67

PnL

+$0.73

Record

28%

278-703 (981)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$0.6

Value

$0.95

PnL

+$0.35

Record

51%

3680-3509 (7189)

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 86%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Heat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJazz 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrJazz 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Jazz 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Heat wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.