Spread: Jazz (-3.5)
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Heat (88%) · Heat at 99¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Heat
8
Heat 88%
$5.7K
$77.04
89.5¢ → 99.1¢
+11% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidHeat at 99%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Heat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Heatavg 89.4¢ | $2.3K | $2.5K | +$230.42 | 56% 504-395 (899) |
FL Flaznorp | Heatavg 90.6¢ | $1.8K | $1.7K | -$153.1 | 50% 1562-1566 (3128) |
38 38791873984189 | Heatavg 86.2¢ | $762.7 | $672.6 | -$0.55 | 48% 969-1052 (2021) |
65 6512395314597884 | Heatavg 96¢ | $384 | $389.8 | +$5.8 | 51% 3173-3073 (6246) |
SE sentrio | Heatavg 81.6¢ | $276.03 | $277.38 | +$1.35 | 35% 266-490 (756) |
PA Pan9X | Heatavg 93.4¢ | $234.3 | $174.13 | +$7.46 | 49% 450-474 (924) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Jazzavg 3.5¢ | $19.34 | $4.92 | -$14.42 | 58% 3830-2807 (6637) |
DA darkumbreon88<$100 | Heatavg 80¢ | $3.2 | $3.28 | +$0.08 | 61% 900-578 (1478) |
Invested
$2,310.52
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$230.42
Record
56%
504-395 (899)
Invested
$1,846.2
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$153.1
Record
50%
1562-1566 (3128)
Invested
$762.7
Value
$672.6
PnL
-$0.55
Record
48%
969-1052 (2021)
Invested
$384
Value
$389.8
PnL
+$5.8
Record
51%
3173-3073 (6246)
Invested
$276.03
Value
$277.38
PnL
+$1.35
Record
35%
266-490 (756)
Invested
$234.3
Value
$174.13
PnL
+$7.46
Record
49%
450-474 (924)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$19.34
Value
$4.92
PnL
-$14.42
Record
58%
3830-2807 (6637)
Invested
$3.2
Value
$3.28
PnL
+$0.08
Record
61%
900-578 (1478)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.