Spread: Heat (-36.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (40%) · Jazz at 97¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Jazz
5
Jazz 40%
$1.8K
$4.9
96.7¢ → 96.7¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidJazz at 97%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Jazzavg 96.7¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$4.66 | 56% 502-393 (895) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Jazzavg 96.9¢ | $96.9 | $97 | +$0.1 | 48% 959-1032 (1991) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100 | Heatavg 3.5¢ | $7 | $8.4 | +$1.4 | 62% 2355-1453 (3808) |
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100 | Heatavg 3¢ | $6 | $8.4 | +$2.4 | 51% 3172-3073 (6245) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Heatavg 5¢ | $9.15 | $5.49 | -$3.66 | 58% 3828-2805 (6633) |
Invested
$1,631.08
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$4.66
Record
56%
502-393 (895)
Invested
$96.9
Value
$97
PnL
+$0.1
Record
48%
959-1032 (1991)
Invested
$7
Value
$8.4
PnL
+$1.4
Record
62%
2355-1453 (3808)
Invested
$6
Value
$8.4
PnL
+$2.4
Record
51%
3172-3073 (6245)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$9.15
Value
$5.49
PnL
-$3.66
Record
58%
3828-2805 (6633)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.