Spread: Heat (-20.5)

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (40%) · Jazz at 76¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 11

Heat24¢Jazz76¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 40%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

-$7.77

Smart Money Entry

70.8¢ → 76¢

+7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 76%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Heat24%

Jazz76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz4 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,890

Combined PnL+$125.63

Heat6 traders

Total Value$564.76

Total Shares2,294

Combined PnL-$133.4

Jazz — 40%Heat — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJazz 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Heat 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Jazzavg 69.4¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$118.7	56% 502-393 (895)
FL Flaznorp	Jazzavg 83.4¢	$429.86	$308.15	-$30.54	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Jazzavg 66.5¢	$265.23	$303.05	+$37.81	54% 217-188 (405)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Heatavg 29.1¢	$318.2	$262.8	-$55.4	51% 3172-3073 (6245)
RN1CTR	Heatavg 34.4¢	$291.6	$203.52	-$88.08	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Heatavg 25¢	$45.68	$63.94	+$18.26	48% 959-1032 (1991)
SE sentrio<$100	Jazzavg 84¢	$19.44	$19.09	-$0.34	35% 266-489 (755)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Heatavg 36.3¢	$25.41	$16.8	-$8.61	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Heatavg 16.6¢	$9.67	$10.5	+$0.83	49% 446-472 (918)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Heatavg 19¢	$7.6	$7.2	-$0.4	29% 307-748 (1055)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Jazz

Invested

$1,603.57

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$118.7

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

Flaznorp

Jazz

Invested

$429.86

Value

$308.15

PnL

-$30.54

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Jazz

Invested

$265.23

Value

$303.05

PnL

+$37.81

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

6512395314597884CTR

Heat

Invested

$318.2

Value

$262.8

PnL

-$55.4

Record

51%

3172-3073 (6245)

RN1CTR

Heat

Invested

$291.6

Value

$203.52

PnL

-$88.08

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$45.68

Value

$63.94

PnL

+$18.26

Record

48%

959-1032 (1991)

sentrio<$100

Jazz

Invested

$19.44

Value

$19.09

PnL

-$0.34

Record

35%

266-489 (755)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$25.41

Value

$16.8

PnL

-$8.61

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$9.67

Value

$10.5

PnL

+$0.83

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$7.6

Value

$7.2

PnL

-$0.4

Record

29%

307-748 (1055)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 76%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJazz 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Heat 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.9%

76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.