Spread: Heat (-18.5)

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (71%) · Jazz at 100¢ · $13K held · ended Nov 11

Heat<1¢Jazz>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 71%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.1K

Combined PnL

$94.39

Smart Money Entry

56.8¢ → 99.6¢

+75% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

10 of 14 top traders (71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Heat0%

Jazz100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz10 traders

Total Value$11.5K

Total Shares13,070

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Heat4 traders

Total Value$128.97

Total Shares3,364

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Jazz — 71%Heat — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Jazzavg 59.8¢	$5.8K	$5.2K	-$551.53	56% 504-395 (899)
FL Flaznorp	Jazzavg 52.8¢	$1.6K	$2.9K	+$1.4K	50% 1562-1566 (3128)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Jazzavg 72¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$388.62	54% 217-188 (405)
RN1ARB<$100	Heatavg 36¢	$863.31	$980.04	+$116.73	58% 3830-2807 (6637)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 36¢	$532.65	$761.79	+$229.14
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 73.5¢	$330.66	$218.25	-$112.41
LI Limousin	Jazzavg 47.9¢	$333.61	$693.05	+$359.44	29% 314-785 (1099)
BI biying88888	Jazzavg 49.8¢	$951.4	$448.85	-$502.55	27% 63-170 (233)
TA takeormake	Jazzavg 43¢	$221.63	$427.89	+$206.26	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Jazzavg 68.8¢	$487.43	$392.35	+$12.51	48% 969-1052 (2021)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 68.8¢	$269.76	$248.9	-$20.85
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 36.4¢	$143.06	$143.44	+$33.36
VE Venusian	Jazzavg 44¢	$143.17	$166.17	+$97.87	28% 305-773 (1078)
PA Pan9X	Jazzavg 66¢	$127.21	$87.3	-$26.76	49% 450-474 (924)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Heatavg 40.9¢	$891.92	$76.4	-$815.52	51% 3173-3073 (6246)
CI cigarettesARB<$100	Jazzavg 74¢	$47.82	$56.97	+$9.15	53% 5552-4939 (10491)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 74¢	$31.82	$32.47	+$0.65
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 16¢	$16	$24.5	+$8.5
LI LightParadoxCTR	Heatavg 42.4¢	$231.22	$27.26	-$203.96	28% 299-766 (1065)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Heatavg 41¢	$258.75	$25.26	-$233.49	29% 307-750 (1057)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Jazzavg 40¢	$5.2	$6.05	+$0.84	30% 134-317 (451)
SE sentrio<$100	Jazzavg 78¢	$5.98	$4.99	-$1	35% 266-490 (756)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR<$100	Heatavg 46.1¢	$2	$0.04	-$1.96	6% 28-415 (443)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Jazz

Invested

$5,767.89

Value

$5.2K

PnL

-$551.53

Record

56%

504-395 (899)

Flaznorp

Jazz

Invested

$1,555.54

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

50%

1562-1566 (3128)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Jazz

Invested

$1,243.11

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$388.62

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

RN1ARB<$100

Heat

Invested

$863.31

Value

$980.04

PnL

+$116.73

Record

58%

3830-2807 (6637)

Both legs:

Heat$532.6536¢+$229.14

Jazz$330.6673.5¢-$112.41

Limousin

Jazz

Invested

$333.61

Value

$693.05

PnL

+$359.44

Record

29%

314-785 (1099)

biying88888

Jazz

Invested

$951.4

Value

$448.85

PnL

-$502.55

Record

27%

63-170 (233)

takeormake

Jazz

Invested

$221.63

Value

$427.89

PnL

+$206.26

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$487.43

Value

$392.35

PnL

+$12.51

Record

48%

969-1052 (2021)

Both legs:

Jazz$269.7668.8¢-$20.85

Heat$143.0636.4¢+$33.36

Venusian

Jazz

Invested

$143.17

Value

$166.17

PnL

+$97.87

Record

28%

305-773 (1078)

Pan9X

Jazz

Invested

$127.21

Value

$87.3

PnL

-$26.76

Record

49%

450-474 (924)

6512395314597884CTR

Heat

Invested

$891.92

Value

$76.4

PnL

-$815.52

Record

51%

3173-3073 (6246)

cigarettesARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$47.82

Value

$56.97

PnL

+$9.15

Record

53%

5552-4939 (10491)

Both legs:

Invested

$231.22

Value

$27.26

PnL

-$203.96

Record

28%

299-766 (1065)

MadridTimeCTR

Heat

Invested

$258.75

Value

$25.26

PnL

-$233.49

Record

29%

307-750 (1057)

justaluckydude<$100

Jazz

Invested

$5.2

Value

$6.05

PnL

+$0.84

Record

30%

134-317 (451)

sentrio<$100

Jazz

Invested

$5.98

Value

$4.99

PnL

-$1

Record

35%

266-490 (756)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$1.96

Record

28-415 (443)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

10 of 14 top traders (71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.