Spread: Heat (-16.5)

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (73%) · Jazz at 65¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11

Heat36¢Jazz64¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 73%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$48.05

Smart Money Entry

58.7¢ → 64.5¢

+10% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 65%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

8 of 11 top traders (73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Heat36%

Jazz65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz8 traders

Total Value$688.87

Total Shares975

Combined PnL+$57.11

Heat3 traders

Total Value$202.19

Total Shares605

Combined PnL-$9.06

Jazz — 73%Heat — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Jazzavg 64.4¢	$354.32	$301.76	-$8.88	51% 3172-3073 (6245)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Heatavg 51.2¢	$220.1	$191.52	-$28.58	56% 502-393 (895)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 51.2¢	$142.02	$117.92	-$24.1
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 61¢	$78.08	$73.6	-$4.48
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Heatavg 52¢	$169.07	$159.47	-$9.6	48% 959-1032 (1991)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 52¢	$110.83	$100.11	-$10.72
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 52¢	$58.24	$59.36	+$1.12
RN1CTR	Heatavg 34.4¢	$152.27	$157.18	+$4.91	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
VE Venusian	Jazzavg 47¢	$96.14	$132.96	+$36.82	28% 304-772 (1076)
LI Limousin<$100	Jazzavg 49¢	$66.77	$88.57	+$21.8	29% 313-784 (1097)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100	Jazzavg 67¢	$67	$77	+$10	54% 217-188 (405)
PA Pan9X<$100	Jazzavg 70.6¢	$54.33	$31.42	-$4.98	49% 446-472 (918)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Jazzavg 52¢	$28.99	$29.55	+$0.56	54% 1660-1438 (3098)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Jazzavg 73¢	$24.82	$26.18	+$1.36	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Heatavg 33¢	$33	$23	-$10	53% 5552-4936 (10488)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Heatavg 41.9¢	$25.98	$22.01	-$3.97	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
SU SunflowaRebuildYear<$100	Jazzavg 45¢	$1	$1.43	+$0.43	6% 27-415 (442)

6512395314597884

Jazz

Invested

$354.32

Value

$301.76

PnL

-$8.88

Record

51%

3172-3073 (6245)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Heat

Invested

$220.1

Value

$191.52

PnL

-$28.58

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

Both legs:

Heat$142.0251.2¢-$24.1

Jazz$78.0861¢-$4.48

38791873984189ARB<$100

Heat

Invested

$169.07

Value

$159.47

PnL

-$9.6

Record

48%

959-1032 (1991)

Both legs:

Heat$110.8352¢-$10.72

Jazz$58.2452¢+$1.12

RN1CTR

Heat

Invested

$152.27

Value

$157.18

PnL

+$4.91

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

Venusian

Jazz

Invested

$96.14

Value

$132.96

PnL

+$36.82

Record

28%

304-772 (1076)

Limousin<$100

Jazz

Invested

$66.77

Value

$88.57

PnL

+$21.8

Record

29%

313-784 (1097)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100

Jazz

Invested

$67

Value

$77

PnL

+$10

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

Pan9X<$100

Jazz

Invested

$54.33

Value

$31.42

PnL

-$4.98

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Jazz

Invested

$28.99

Value

$29.55

PnL

+$0.56

Record

54%

1660-1438 (3098)

Flaznorp<$100

Jazz

Invested

$24.82

Value

$26.18

PnL

+$1.36

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$33

Value

$23

PnL

-$10

Record

53%

5552-4936 (10488)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$25.98

Value

$22.01

PnL

-$3.97

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

SunflowaRebuildYear<$100

Jazz

Invested

Value

$1.43

PnL

+$0.43

Record

27-415 (442)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 65%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

8 of 11 top traders (73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.