Spread: Heat (-15.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (50%) · Jazz at 62¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 11

Heat39¢Jazz61¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$30.28

Smart Money Entry

59.3¢ → 61.5¢

+4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Heat39%

Jazz62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,164

Combined PnL+$48.84

Heat4 traders

Total Value$355.75

Total Shares864

Combined PnL-$18.56

Jazz — 50%Heat — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJazz 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Heat 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Heatavg 41.6¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$69.14	56% 502-393 (895)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 41.6¢	$747.38	$834.42	+$87.04
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 56¢	$401.13	$383.22	-$17.91
JU justaluckydude	Jazzavg 65¢	$850.55	$805.04	-$45.51	30% 134-317 (451)
FL Flaznorp	Jazzavg 50¢	$397.73	$489.21	+$91.48	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
RN1CTR	Heatavg 44¢	$248.4	$217.35	-$31.05	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Heatavg 35¢	$133.44	$158.77	+$25.32	51% 3172-3073 (6245)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 35¢	$70	$94	+$24
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 51.9¢	$63.44	$64.77	+$1.32
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Heatavg 38.5¢	$44.3	$67.27	+$22.97	49% 446-472 (918)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Heatavg 43.5¢	$68.17	$60.35	-$7.82	29% 307-748 (1055)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100	Jazzavg 66¢	$22.52	$22.52	-$0	54% 217-188 (405)
VE Venusian<$100	Jazzavg 50¢	$12.5	$15.38	+$2.88	28% 304-772 (1076)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Heatavg 48¢	$13.44	$10.78	-$2.66	59% 3119-2207 (5326)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Heat

Invested

$1,148.51

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$69.14

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

Both legs:

Heat$747.3841.6¢+$87.04

Jazz$401.1356¢-$17.91

justaluckydude

Jazz

Invested

$850.55

Value

$805.04

PnL

-$45.51

Record

30%

134-317 (451)

Flaznorp

Jazz

Invested

$397.73

Value

$489.21

PnL

+$91.48

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

RN1CTR

Heat

Invested

$248.4

Value

$217.35

PnL

-$31.05

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Heat

Invested

$133.44

Value

$158.77

PnL

+$25.32

Record

51%

3172-3073 (6245)

Both legs:

Heat$7035¢+$24

Jazz$63.4451.9¢+$1.32

Pan9XCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$44.3

Value

$67.27

PnL

+$22.97

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$68.17

Value

$60.35

PnL

-$7.82

Record

29%

307-748 (1055)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100

Jazz

Invested

$22.52

Value

$22.52

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

Venusian<$100

Jazz

Invested

$12.5

Value

$15.38

PnL

+$2.88

Record

28%

304-772 (1076)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$13.44

Value

$10.78

PnL

-$2.66

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJazz 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Heat 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.