Spread: Heat (-14.5)

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (80%) · Jazz at 57¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 11

Heat43¢Jazz57¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 80%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

-$66.1

Smart Money Entry

53.5¢ → 57.5¢

+7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

4 of 5 top traders (80%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Heat43%

Jazz57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,898

Combined PnL-$69.11

Heat1 trader

Total Value$85.51

Total Shares201

Combined PnL+$3.01

Jazz — 80%Heat — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJazz 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Jazz 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Jazzavg 53.4¢	$1.1K	$987.27	-$74.38	56% 502-393 (895)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Heatavg 46¢	$633.91	$610.59	-$23.31	51% 3172-3073 (6245)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 46¢	$449.04	$400.16	-$48.88
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 51.8¢	$184.87	$210.43	+$25.57
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Jazzavg 64.7¢	$474.33	$475.64	+$1.31	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 32.4¢	$144.47	$238.56	+$94.09
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 64.7¢	$329.86	$237.08	-$92.78
RN1ARB<$100	Heatavg 47¢	$358.74	$281.87	-$10.36	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 47¢	$206.33	$186.57	-$18.91
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 52.3¢	$86.74	$95.29	+$8.56
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Jazzavg 74¢	$277.51	$235.79	-$27.68	48% 959-1032 (1991)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 74¢	$182.04	$120.54	-$66.7
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 33.7¢	$76.23	$115.25	+$39.02
LI LimousinARB<$100	Heatavg 48¢	$185.91	$121.16	+$3.87	29% 313-784 (1097)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 50¢	$56.59	$65.08	+$11.13
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 48¢	$63.34	$56.08	-$7.26
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Heatavg 41¢	$82.5	$85.51	+$3.01	28% 298-765 (1063)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Jazzavg 41.6¢	$54.04	$61.64	+$7.6	54% 1660-1438 (3098)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 41.6¢	$27.84	$35.17	+$7.32
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 47¢	$26.19	$26.47	+$0.28
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Jazzavg 46¢	$67.86	$57.97	+$5.22	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 46¢	$29.71	$37.14	+$9.67
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 51.6¢	$25.27	$20.83	-$4.45
JU justaluckydude<$100	Jazzavg 61¢	$30.5	$37.5	+$7	30% 134-317 (451)
MA MadridTime<$100	Jazzavg 46¢	$22.99	$28.74	+$5.75	29% 307-748 (1055)
PA Pan9X<$100	Jazzavg 60.2¢	$71.31	$28.15	-$7.48	49% 446-472 (918)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Jazz

Invested

$1,061.64

Value

$987.27

PnL

-$74.38

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Heat

Invested

$633.91

Value

$610.59

PnL

-$23.31

Record

51%

3172-3073 (6245)

Both legs:

Heat$449.0446¢-$48.88

Jazz$184.8751.8¢+$25.57

FlaznorpARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$474.33

Value

$475.64

PnL

+$1.31

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

Both legs:

Heat$144.4732.4¢+$94.09

Jazz$329.8664.7¢-$92.78

RN1ARB<$100

Heat

Invested

$358.74

Value

$281.87

PnL

-$10.36

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

Both legs:

Heat$206.3347¢-$18.91

Jazz$86.7452.3¢+$8.56

38791873984189ARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$277.51

Value

$235.79

PnL

-$27.68

Record

48%

959-1032 (1991)

Both legs:

Jazz$182.0474¢-$66.7

Heat$76.2333.7¢+$39.02

LimousinARB<$100

Heat

Invested

$185.91

Value

$121.16

PnL

+$3.87

Record

29%

313-784 (1097)

Both legs:

Invested

$82.5

Value

$85.51

PnL

+$3.01

Record

28%

298-765 (1063)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$54.04

Value

$61.64

PnL

+$7.6

Record

54%

1660-1438 (3098)

Both legs:

Jazz$27.8441.6¢+$7.32

Heat$26.1947¢+$0.28

takeormakeARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$67.86

Value

$57.97

PnL

+$5.22

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

Both legs:

Jazz$29.7146¢+$9.67

Heat$25.2751.6¢-$4.45

justaluckydude<$100

Jazz

Invested

$30.5

Value

$37.5

PnL

+$7

Record

30%

134-317 (451)

MadridTime<$100

Jazz

Invested

$22.99

Value

$28.74

PnL

+$5.75

Record

29%

307-748 (1055)

Pan9X<$100

Jazz

Invested

$71.31

Value

$28.15

PnL

-$7.48

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

4 of 5 top traders (80%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJazz 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Jazz 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.