Spread: Heat (-13.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (67%) · Jazz at 55¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 11

Heat46¢Jazz54¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

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Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$157.67

Smart Money Entry

50.5¢ → 54.5¢

+8% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

6 of 9 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Heat46%

Jazz55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz6 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,448

Combined PnL+$137.43

Heat3 traders

Total Value$571.68

Total Shares1,246

Combined PnL+$20.24

Jazz — 67%Heat — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Heatavg 51¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$65.65	56% 502-393 (895)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 51¢	$967.44	$1.0K	+$66.13
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 45.6¢	$292.6	$292.12	-$0.48
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Jazzavg 49¢	$713	$778.43	+$65.43	54% 217-188 (405)
RN1CTR	Heatavg 45.4¢	$471.47	$503.44	+$31.97	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
FL Flaznorp	Jazzavg 60.6¢	$414.22	$320.25	+$18.15	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Jazzavg 69¢	$263.71	$240.49	-$23.22	51% 3172-3073 (6245)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 69¢	$138	$138	+$0
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 38¢	$125.71	$102.49	-$23.22
LI LightParadox	Jazzavg 41¢	$108.12	$143.71	+$35.59	28% 298-765 (1063)
LI Limousin<$100	Jazzavg 42¢	$66.77	$85.05	+$18.28	29% 313-784 (1097)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Heatavg 36¢	$66.28	$57.08	-$9.21	49% 220-228 (448)
PA Pan9X<$100	Jazzavg 69.2¢	$25.21	$25.13	-$0.09	49% 446-472 (918)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Heatavg 57¢	$13.68	$11.16	-$2.52	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
38 38791873984189<$100	Jazzavg 65¢	$1.16	$1.23	+$0.07	48% 959-1032 (1991)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Heat

Invested

$1,260.03

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$65.65

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

Both legs:

Heat$967.4451¢+$66.13

Jazz$292.645.6¢-$0.48

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Jazz

Invested

$713

Value

$778.43

PnL

+$65.43

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

RN1CTR

Heat

Invested

$471.47

Value

$503.44

PnL

+$31.97

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

Flaznorp

Jazz

Invested

$414.22

Value

$320.25

PnL

+$18.15

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$263.71

Value

$240.49

PnL

-$23.22

Record

51%

3172-3073 (6245)

Both legs:

Jazz$13869¢+$0

Heat$125.7138¢-$23.22

LightParadox

Jazz

Invested

$108.12

Value

$143.71

PnL

+$35.59

Record

28%

298-765 (1063)

Limousin<$100

Jazz

Invested

$66.77

Value

$85.05

PnL

+$18.28

Record

29%

313-784 (1097)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$66.28

Value

$57.08

PnL

-$9.21

Record

49%

220-228 (448)

Pan9X<$100

Jazz

Invested

$25.21

Value

$25.13

PnL

-$0.09

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$13.68

Value

$11.16

PnL

-$2.52

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

38791873984189<$100

Jazz

Invested

$1.16

Value

$1.23

PnL

+$0.07

Record

48%

959-1032 (1991)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

6 of 9 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.