Heat vs. Kings: O/U 239.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 55¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 9

Over46¢Under54¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$140.88

Smart Money Entry

58.9¢ → 54.5¢

-7% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over46%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares3,451

Combined PnL+$98.07

Over4 traders

Total Value$244.25

Total Shares646

Combined PnL+$42.82

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunlineTicker	Underavg 57¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$93.75	54% 5366-4577 (9943)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 64.4¢	$763.25	$759.44	-$3.81	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 53¢	$167.96	$175.88	+$7.92	50% 48622-48197 (96819)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 30¢	$141.24	$167.14	+$25.89	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
GH ghorrockARB<$100	Overavg 42.5¢	$52.6	$53.1	+$0.5	57% 24691-18283 (42974)
└ Over leg	Overavg 42.5¢	$28.72	$27.38	-$1.34
└ Under leg	Underavg 55.3¢	$23.89	$25.72	+$1.84
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Overavg 28¢	$25.76	$40.02	+$14.26	52% 5562-5184 (10746)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$31.38	$34.05	+$2.68	50% 5216-5115 (10331)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 45.7¢	$3.05	$3.03	-$0.02	52% 9525-8636 (18161)
HI hi774c<$100	Underavg 53¢	$2.71	$2.83	+$0.13	46% 5629-6541 (12170)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Underavg 54¢	$2.65	$2.73	+$0.08	54% 19992-16872 (36864)

SunlineTicker

Under

Invested

$1,187.51

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$93.75

Record

54%

5366-4577 (9943)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$763.25

Value

$759.44

PnL

-$3.81

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$167.96

Value

$175.88

PnL

+$7.92

Record

50%

48622-48197 (96819)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$141.24

Value

$167.14

PnL

+$25.89

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

ghorrockARB<$100

Over

Invested

$52.6

Value

$53.1

PnL

+$0.5

Record

57%

24691-18283 (42974)

Both legs:

Over$28.7242.5¢-$1.34

Under$23.8955.3¢+$1.84

takeormakeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$25.76

Value

$40.02

PnL

+$14.26

Record

52%

5562-5184 (10746)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$31.38

Value

$34.05

PnL

+$2.68

Record

50%

5216-5115 (10331)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.05

Value

$3.03

PnL

-$0.02

Record

52%

9525-8636 (18161)

hi774c<$100

Under

Invested

$2.71

Value

$2.83

PnL

+$0.13

Record

46%

5629-6541 (12170)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Under

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.73

PnL

+$0.08

Record

54%

19992-16872 (36864)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.