Heat vs. Kings: O/U 237.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (44%) · Under at 55¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 9

Over45¢Under55¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 44%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

$203.13

Smart Money Entry

50.5¢ → 55¢

+9% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over45%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares5,419

Combined PnL+$215.67

Over5 traders

Total Value$361.56

Total Shares724

Combined PnL-$12.54

Under — 44%Over — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (7 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 50.9¢	$2.8K	$3.0K	+$198.17	54% 19992-16872 (36864)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 62.5¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$19.19	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
└ Under leg	Underavg 62.5¢	$848.73	$747.45	-$101.28
└ Over leg	Overavg 35¢	$287.31	$369.4	+$82.09
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Underavg 65¢	$882.91	$942.68	+$59.77	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
└ Over leg	Overavg 32¢	$349.34	$491.19	+$141.85
└ Under leg	Underavg 65¢	$533.58	$451.49	-$82.09
GC GC-PARB<$100	Overavg 46¢	$407.84	$413.17	+$5.33	57% 22246-16603 (38849)
└ Over leg	Overavg 46¢	$230	$227.5	-$2.5
└ Under leg	Underavg 52.2¢	$177.84	$185.67	+$7.83
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 52¢	$275.6	$262.35	-$13.25	45% 14434-17741 (32175)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 47¢	$202.84	$217.95	+$15.11	50% 48622-48197 (96819)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Overavg 46¢	$215.9	$216.81	+$0.91	58% 22573-16672 (39245)
└ Over leg	Overavg 46¢	$115.98	$113.46	-$2.52
└ Under leg	Underavg 53.2¢	$99.92	$103.35	+$3.43
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$45	$45.5	+$0.5	53% 14337-12646 (26983)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 47.9¢	$47.36	$36.58	+$0.38	57% 24691-18283 (42974)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Underavg 51¢	$25.5	$26.75	+$1.25	50% 23496-23498 (46994)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 47.2¢	$24.12	$25.27	+$1.15	50% 27970-27422 (55392)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$25.42	$12.58	+$0.13	59% 52427-37141 (89568)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 48.5¢	$4.85	$4.55	-$0.3	52% 9525-8636 (18161)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$2,753.64

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$198.17

Record

54%

19992-16872 (36864)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,136.04

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$19.19

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

Both legs:

Under$848.7362.5¢-$101.28

Over$287.3135¢+$82.09

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$882.91

Value

$942.68

PnL

+$59.77

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

Both legs:

Over$349.3432¢+$141.85

Under$533.5865¢-$82.09

GC-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$407.84

Value

$413.17

PnL

+$5.33

Record

57%

22246-16603 (38849)

Both legs:

Over$23046¢-$2.5

Under$177.8452.2¢+$7.83

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$275.6

Value

$262.35

PnL

-$13.25

Record

45%

14434-17741 (32175)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$202.84

Value

$217.95

PnL

+$15.11

Record

50%

48622-48197 (96819)

NM-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$215.9

Value

$216.81

PnL

+$0.91

Record

58%

22573-16672 (39245)

Both legs:

Over$115.9846¢-$2.52

Under$99.9253.2¢+$3.43

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$45

Value

$45.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

53%

14337-12646 (26983)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$47.36

Value

$36.58

PnL

+$0.38

Record

57%

24691-18283 (42974)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Under

Invested

$25.5

Value

$26.75

PnL

+$1.25

Record

50%

23496-23498 (46994)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$24.12

Value

$25.27

PnL

+$1.15

Record

50%

27970-27422 (55392)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$25.42

Value

$12.58

PnL

+$0.13

Record

59%

52427-37141 (89568)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.85

Value

$4.55

PnL

-$0.3

Record

52%

9525-8636 (18161)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (7 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.2%

55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$74.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

174.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.