Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Over — but Under won instead.
Heat vs. Lakers: O/U 259.5
Resolved Under. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Over. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
13
Over 67%
9 arb excluded
$14.3K
$-5.3K
Smart Money Signal
9 of 13 top traders (69%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100 | Overavg 54.6¢ | $5.8K | $5.8K | -$17.29 | 52% 3903-3554 (7457) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 54.6¢ | $3.1K | — | $-3.1K | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 46.9¢ | $2.7K | $5.8K | +$3.1K | |
JU justaluckydudeCTR | Overavg 56¢ | $5.0K | — | $-5.0K | 53% 11467-10034 (21501) |
BI biying99999ARB<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $12.3K | $2.1K | $-3.8K | 11% 9-76 (85) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 48¢ | $4.9K | — | $-4.9K | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 50.3¢ | $1.1K | $2.1K | +$1.1K | |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Overavg 53.2¢ | $7.7K | $2.7K | $-1.1K | 51% 23065-21883 (44948) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 53.2¢ | $2.7K | — | $-2.7K | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 41.7¢ | $1.1K | $2.7K | +$1.6K | |
AN Anon455 | Underavg 38.2¢ | $1.6K | $1.1K | +$289.39 | 55% 3246-2649 (5895) |
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100 | Overavg 61.2¢ | $1.6K | $818.01 | -$73.83 | 51% 4404-4284 (8688) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 49.2¢ | $402.54 | $818.01 | +$415.43 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 61.2¢ | $489.22 | — | -$489.26 | |
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375 | Underavg 44¢ | $1.1K | $932.2 | +$448.53 | 50% 4150-4104 (8254) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Overavg 55.5¢ | $937.74 | — | -$520.93 | 53% 4558-4042 (8600) |
LI LightParadoxARB<$100 | Overavg 42.9¢ | $661.1 | $139.5 | -$151.24 | 54% 766-651 (1417) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 42.9¢ | $223.77 | — | -$223.78 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 48¢ | $66.96 | $139.5 | +$72.54 | |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Underavg 58.7¢ | $447.82 | $396.58 | +$7.31 | 47% 14094-15610 (29704) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 58.7¢ | $232.61 | $396.58 | +$147.85 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 63¢ | $140.32 | — | -$140.54 | |
PA panpidaras1CTR | Overavg 49¢ | $816.33 | — | -$400 | 49% 227-234 (461) |
VE VenusianARB<$100 | Overavg 45.5¢ | $456.65 | $121 | -$95.72 | 53% 748-666 (1414) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 45.5¢ | $152.59 | — | -$152.59 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 53¢ | $64.12 | $121 | +$56.87 | |
 HRTradingARB<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $150.25 | $97 | -$53.25 | 51% 7139-6898 (14037) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 50¢ | $108.92 | — | -$108.92 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 42.6¢ | $41.33 | $97 | +$55.67 | |
LI LimousinARB<$100 | Overavg 58¢ | $305.75 | $128.75 | -$40.86 | 55% 764-622 (1386) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 58¢ | $102.64 | — | -$102.66 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 52¢ | $66.95 | $128.75 | +$61.8 | |
DI dips.CTR | Overavg 68¢ | $182 | — | -$62.56 | 46% 7526-8753 (16279) |
GA GaditimaCTR | Overavg 68¢ | $100 | — | -$68 | 48% 6843-7476 (14319) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Overavg 70¢ | $88 | — | -$61.6 | 47% 8994-10093 (19087) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Underavg 39.8¢ | $34.98 | $24.98 | +$9.79 | 48% 5999-6422 (12421) |
 alpheclabs2CTR<$100 | Overavg 76¢ | $44.46 | — | -$33.79 | 48% 190-209 (399) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 40.6¢ | $28.98 | $22.16 | +$10.78 | 57% 17750-13286 (31036) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Overavg 14¢ | $0.16 | — | -$0.16 | 54% 21850-18953 (40803) |
SM smithagentCTR<$100 | Overavg 78¢ | $16.38 | — | -$0.84 | 48% 5221-5590 (10811) |
Invested
$5,772
Value
$5.8K
PnL
-$17.29
Record
52%
3903-3554 (7457)
Both legs:
Invested
$4,956.44
Value
—
PnL
$-5.0K
Record
53%
11467-10034 (21501)
Invested
$12,318.62
Value
$2.1K
PnL
$-3.8K
Record
11%
9-76 (85)
Both legs:
Invested
$7,716.75
Value
$2.7K
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
51%
23065-21883 (44948)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,638.55
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$289.39
Record
55%
3246-2649 (5895)
Invested
$1,618.04
Value
$818.01
PnL
-$73.83
Record
51%
4404-4284 (8688)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,096.93
Value
$932.2
PnL
+$448.53
Record
50%
4150-4104 (8254)
Invested
$937.74
Value
—
PnL
-$520.93
Record
53%
4558-4042 (8600)
Invested
$661.1
Value
$139.5
PnL
-$151.24
Record
54%
766-651 (1417)
Both legs:
Invested
$447.82
Value
$396.58
PnL
+$7.31
Record
47%
14094-15610 (29704)
Both legs:
Invested
$816.33
Value
—
PnL
-$400
Record
49%
227-234 (461)
Invested
$456.65
Value
$121
PnL
-$95.72
Record
53%
748-666 (1414)
Both legs:
HRTradingARB<$100Invested
$150.25
Value
$97
PnL
-$53.25
Record
51%
7139-6898 (14037)
Both legs:
Invested
$305.75
Value
$128.75
PnL
-$40.86
Record
55%
764-622 (1386)
Both legs:
Invested
$182
Value
—
PnL
-$62.56
Record
46%
7526-8753 (16279)
Invested
$100
Value
—
PnL
-$68
Record
48%
6843-7476 (14319)
Invested
$88
Value
—
PnL
-$61.6
Record
47%
8994-10093 (19087)
Invested
$34.98
Value
$24.98
PnL
+$9.79
Record
48%
5999-6422 (12421)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100Invested
$44.46
Value
—
PnL
-$33.79
Record
48%
190-209 (399)
Invested
$28.98
Value
$22.16
PnL
+$10.78
Record
57%
17750-13286 (31036)
Invested
$0.16
Value
—
PnL
-$0.16
Record
54%
21850-18953 (40803)
Invested
$16.38
Value
—
PnL
-$0.84
Record
48%
5221-5590 (10811)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872
ARBArbitrage — excluded
justaluckydude
CTROver — $0
biying99999
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Flaznorp
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Anon455
Under — $1.1K
6512395314597884
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375
Under — $932.2
takeormake
CTROver — $0
LightParadox
ARBArbitrage — excluded
38791873984189
ARBArbitrage — excluded