Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (54%). 4 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Grizzlies vs. Raptors: O/U 226.5

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 47¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 10

Over54¢Under46¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$2.61

Smart Money Entry

46.4¢ → 46.5¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 12 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 54%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over54%

Under47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,463

Combined PnL+$2.17

Over8 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,024

Combined PnL+$0.45

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 64% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JO JoeyAroyyOOCTR	Underavg 46¢	$617.81	$624.53	+$6.72	0% 0-42 (42)
nigiri99CTR	Underavg 47¢	$504.78	$499.41	-$5.37	43% 26-35 (61)
HI hi774c	Overavg 53¢	$429.64	$435.02	+$5.06	4% 9-248 (257)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 53.5¢	$317.33	$317.26	-$0.07	49% 377-392 (769)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 54¢	$135	$133.75	-$1.25	52% 59-54 (113)
RN1	Overavg 54¢	$135	$133.75	-$1.25	54% 230-199 (429)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 54¢	$40.5	$40.13	-$0.38	48% 171-185 (356)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Overavg 57¢	$25.12	$24.22	-$0.9	30% 29-67 (96)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$14.82	$15.31	+$0.49	24% 87-279 (366)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Overavg 57.3¢	$11.41	$10.75	-$0.56	52% 236-220 (456)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$5.75	$6.07	+$0.33	25% 84-258 (342)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 57.5¢	$5.55	$5.35	-$0.2	22% 46-161 (207)

JoeyAroyyOOCTR

Under

Invested

$617.81

Value

$624.53

PnL

+$6.72

Record

0-42 (42)

nigiri99CTR

Under

Invested

$504.78

Value

$499.41

PnL

-$5.37

Record

43%

26-35 (61)

hi774c

Over

Invested

$429.64

Value

$435.02

PnL

+$5.06

Record

9-248 (257)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$317.33

Value

$317.26

PnL

-$0.07

Record

49%

377-392 (769)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$135

Value

$133.75

PnL

-$1.25

Record

52%

59-54 (113)

RN1

Over

Invested

$135

Value

$133.75

PnL

-$1.25

Record

54%

230-199 (429)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$40.5

Value

$40.13

PnL

-$0.38

Record

48%

171-185 (356)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Over

Invested

$25.12

Value

$24.22

PnL

-$0.9

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14.82

Value

$15.31

PnL

+$0.49

Record

24%

87-279 (366)

Flaznorp<$100

Over

Invested

$11.41

Value

$10.75

PnL

-$0.56

Record

52%

236-220 (456)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.75

Value

$6.07

PnL

+$0.33

Record

25%

84-258 (342)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$5.55

Value

$5.35

PnL

-$0.2

Record

22%

46-161 (207)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 12 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 54%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 64% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.