Spread: Raptors (-2.5)

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (50%) · Raptors at 51¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 10

Raptors51¢Grizzlies49¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Raptors

Consensus Traders

Raptors 50%

Total Value

$9.7K

Combined PnL

$6.41

Smart Money Entry

51.4¢ → 50.5¢

-2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Raptors51%

Grizzlies50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Grizzlies7 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares10,049

Combined PnL+$87.27

Raptors7 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares9,467

Combined PnL-$80.86

Grizzlies — 50%Raptors — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nehcnehcCTR	Grizzliesavg 49¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$29.67	—
HO HomeRunHazard	Raptorsavg 51¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$24.78	—
RJ RJW1CTR	Grizzliesavg 48¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$55.3	—
nigiri99	Raptorsavg 52¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$49.97	—
GC GC-P	Raptorsavg 51¢	$178.5	$176.75	-$1.75	—
NM NM-P	Raptorsavg 51¢	$178.5	$176.75	-$1.75	—
RN1	Raptorsavg 51¢	$127.5	$126.25	-$1.25	—
VE VenusianCTR	Grizzliesavg 47¢	$231	$109.73	+$1.16	45% 2826-3461 (6287)
38 38791873984189	Raptorsavg 52¢	$105.63	$104.7	-$0.93	—
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 47¢	$86	$40.85	+$0.43	50% 49324-48846 (98170)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 47¢	$38.54	$38.95	+$0.41	52% 49669-46633 (96302)
PA Pan9X<$100	Raptorsavg 51.7¢	$19.12	$18.69	-$0.44	—
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 47¢	$18.91	$8.98	+$0.09	51% 28858-28213 (57071)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 47.5¢	$4.75	$4.95	+$0.2	—

nehcnehcCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$2,908

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$29.67

Record

—

HomeRunHazard

Raptors

Invested

$2,523.15

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$24.78

Record

—

RJW1CTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$1,769.27

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$55.3

Record

—

nigiri99

Raptors

Invested

$1,732.12

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$49.97

Record

—

GC-P

Raptors

Invested

$178.5

Value

$176.75

PnL

-$1.75

Record

—

NM-P

Raptors

Invested

$178.5

Value

$176.75

PnL

-$1.75

Record

—

RN1

Raptors

Invested

$127.5

Value

$126.25

PnL

-$1.25

Record

—

VenusianCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$231

Value

$109.73

PnL

+$1.16

Record

45%

2826-3461 (6287)

38791873984189

Raptors

Invested

$105.63

Value

$104.7

PnL

-$0.93

Record

—

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$86

Value

$40.85

PnL

+$0.43

Record

50%

49324-48846 (98170)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$38.54

Value

$38.95

PnL

+$0.41

Record

52%

49669-46633 (96302)

Pan9X<$100

Raptors

Invested

$19.12

Value

$18.69

PnL

-$0.44

Record

—

sentrioCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$18.91

Value

$8.98

PnL

+$0.09

Record

51%

28858-28213 (57071)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$4.75

Value

$4.95

PnL

+$0.2

Record

—

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Raptors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.