Spread: Raptors (-1.5)

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Grizzlies (67%) · Grizzlies at 57¢ · $37K held · ends Nov 10

Raptors43¢Grizzlies57¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Grizzlies

Consensus Traders

Grizzlies 67%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$37.5K

Combined PnL

$172.76

Smart Money Entry

52.6¢ → 57.5¢

+9% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

8 of 12 top traders (67%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Raptors43%

Grizzlies57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Grizzlies8 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares8,646

Combined PnL+$188.13

Raptors4 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares8,436

Combined PnL-$15.37

Grizzlies — 67%Raptors — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Grizzliesavg 53.3¢	$20.6K	$20.1K	-$481.97	30% 29-67 (96)
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 53.3¢	$11.3K	$11.8K	+$467.96
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 49.6¢	$9.2K	$8.3K	-$949.93
SU SunlineTickerARB<$100	Grizzliesavg 53¢	$6.7K	$6.7K	+$2.22	4% 5-123 (128)
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 53¢	$5.1K	$5.3K	+$146
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 50¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$143.77
VeryLucky888	Grizzliesavg 53¢	$4.7K	$2.6K	+$7.5	49% 60-63 (123)
HI hi774cCTR	Raptorsavg 51¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$24.12	3% 9-249 (258)
nigiri99	Grizzliesavg 52.1¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$161.28	43% 28-37 (65)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Raptorsavg 50¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$10.43	2% 3-120 (123)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Grizzliesavg 55¢	$740.01	$657.53	-$26.76	49% 383-404 (787)
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 55¢	$433.95	$437.9	+$3.95
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 50.5¢	$249.27	$219.63	-$30.7
AN Anon455CTR	Raptorsavg 49.5¢	$631.1	$630.69	-$0.41	48% 82-90 (172)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Grizzliesavg 53.3¢	$469.04	$457.15	-$11.88	52% 242-224 (466)
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 53.3¢	$263.54	$274.26	+$10.72
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 50¢	$205.5	$182.9	-$22.6
RN1ARB<$100	Raptorsavg 49.5¢	$387.81	$361.58	-$26.22	54% 233-201 (434)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 49.5¢	$247.5	$217.5	-$30
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 55¢	$140.31	$144.08	+$3.78
0xheavy888	Grizzliesavg 55¢	$275	$277.5	+$2.5	69% 29-13 (42)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Grizzliesavg 49¢	$142.1	$166.75	+$24.65	30% 105-246 (351)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Grizzliesavg 52¢	$154.77	$151.79	-$2.98	2% 4-203 (207)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Raptorsavg 51¢	$129	$127.73	-$1.26	3% 4-156 (160)
VE Venusian<$100	Grizzliesavg 45.9¢	$27.58	$25.52	-$2.06	23% 82-268 (350)
PA Pan9X<$100	Grizzliesavg 55¢	$25.42	$8.33	-$2.69	48% 173-188 (361)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Grizzliesavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.13	-$0.07	18% 42-190 (232)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$20,572.41

Value

$20.1K

PnL

-$481.97

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

Both legs:

Grizzlies$11,343.6953.3¢+$467.96

Raptors$9,228.7249.6¢-$949.93

SunlineTickerARB<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$6,744.41

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$2.22

Record

5-123 (128)

Both legs:

Grizzlies$5,146.9153¢+$146

Raptors$1,597.550¢-$143.77

VeryLucky888

Grizzlies

Invested

$4,695

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$7.5

Record

49%

60-63 (123)

hi774cCTR

Raptors

Invested

$2,459.81

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$24.12

Record

9-249 (258)

nigiri99

Grizzlies

Invested

$1,553.37

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$161.28

Record

43%

28-37 (65)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Raptors

Invested

$1,042.68

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$10.43

Record

3-120 (123)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$740.01

Value

$657.53

PnL

-$26.76

Record

49%

383-404 (787)

Both legs:

Grizzlies$433.9555¢+$3.95

Raptors$249.2750.5¢-$30.7

Anon455CTR

Raptors

Invested

$631.1

Value

$630.69

PnL

-$0.41

Record

48%

82-90 (172)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$469.04

Value

$457.15

PnL

-$11.88

Record

52%

242-224 (466)

Both legs:

Grizzlies$263.5453.3¢+$10.72

Raptors$205.550¢-$22.6

RN1ARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$387.81

Value

$361.58

PnL

-$26.22

Record

54%

233-201 (434)

Both legs:

Raptors$247.549.5¢-$30

Grizzlies$140.3155¢+$3.78

0xheavy888

Grizzlies

Invested

$275

Value

$277.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

69%

29-13 (42)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Grizzlies

Invested

$142.1

Value

$166.75

PnL

+$24.65

Record

30%

105-246 (351)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Grizzlies

Invested

$154.77

Value

$151.79

PnL

-$2.98

Record

4-203 (207)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Raptors

Invested

$129

Value

$127.73

PnL

-$1.26

Record

4-156 (160)

Venusian<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$27.58

Value

$25.52

PnL

-$2.06

Record

23%

82-268 (350)

Pan9X<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$25.42

Value

$8.33

PnL

-$2.69

Record

48%

173-188 (361)

ameisgoat11<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.13

PnL

-$0.07

Record

18%

42-190 (232)

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

8 of 12 top traders (67%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Grizzlies wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.